← Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
EPLCards

Crystal Palace — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit

Stated probability
73.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Actual resultHit (2)

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Why
Yellows for r5↓
1.50
Reds for r5↑
1.00
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.60
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
10.60
xG against (last 5)
2.09
Corners for (last 5)
2.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Shots against (last 5)
16.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80
Referee avg cards r10
4.16

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

Kickoff
Locked at
Graded at
Model
slate_generator_epl (v4)
Prediction ID
#20741