Track Record

Every prediction, every grade, no cherry-picking. Filter by league, season, or market to see how the model actually performs.

Biggest misses Download CSV

Total graded predictions

10,435

SportLeagueSeasonMarket

Calibration by sport

How closely each sport's stated confidence matches its realized hit rate, across all graded predictions.

Sport	Graded predictions	Mean abs. gap
Soccer	8,963	7.3 pp
Basketball (NBA)	475	8.8 pp
Football (NFL)	918	13.6 pp

By market

Sport	League	Season	Market	N	Stated	Realized
Soccer	BUNDESLIGA	2026-27	Match Result	27	33.3%	33.3%
Soccer	BUNDESLIGA	2026-27	Both Teams to Score	9	61.5%	66.7%
Soccer	BUNDESLIGA	2026-27	Corners	55	66.7%	58.2%
Soccer	BUNDESLIGA	2026-27	Total Goals	9	61.3%	55.6%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Match Result	233	32.9%	31.8%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Both Teams to Score	64	57.2%	51.6%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Cards	139	66.3%	69.1%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Corners	430	57.4%	56.0%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Anytime Goalscorer	87	24.8%	20.7%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Goalkeeper Saves	77	41.3%	29.9%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Shots on Target	375	59.9%	64.5%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Total Goals	65	53.3%	53.8%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Match Result	113	32.4%	31.0%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Both Teams to Score	35	55.0%	57.1%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Corners	216	67.4%	66.7%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Anytime Goalscorer	101	26.3%	17.8%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Goalkeeper Saves	74	41.1%	39.2%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Shots on Target	206	66.7%	68.0%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Total Goals	33	56.0%	63.6%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Match Result	788	32.6%	32.7%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Both Teams to Score	255	60.0%	67.1%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Corners	1434	59.4%	58.1%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Anytime Goalscorer	586	28.5%	28.3%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Goalkeeper Saves	423	43.1%	43.0%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Shots on Target	1184	58.3%	60.3%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Total Goals	240	60.1%	69.6%
Basketball (NBA)	NBA	2026-27	Total Points	475	60.2%	59.4%
Football (NFL)	NFL	2026	Moneyline	157	47.6%	45.2%
Football (NFL)	NFL	2026	Passing Yards	182	69.9%	67.0%
Football (NFL)	NFL	2026	Rushing Yards	341	71.1%	67.2%
Football (NFL)	NFL	2026	Spread	146	47.2%	47.9%
Football (NFL)	NFL	2026	Total Points	104	48.5%	50.0%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Match Result	279	32.2%	31.2%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Both Teams to Score	58	50.0%	62.1%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Cards	168	66.3%	65.5%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Corners	513	57.3%	54.0%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Anytime Goalscorer	122	24.6%	25.4%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Goalkeeper Saves	85	42.9%	38.8%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Shots on Target	476	60.0%	63.7%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Total Goals	66	48.9%	57.6%
Soccer	WC	2026	Match Result	3⚠	33.3%	33.3%
Soccer	WC	2026	Both Teams to Score	1⚠	63.2%	100.0%
Soccer	WC	2026	Total Goals	1⚠	63.4%	0.0%

⚠ Small sample (fewer than 5 predictions) — treat with caution.

Calibration

A well-calibrated model's stated confidence should roughly match how often it's actually right. Each market is broken into confidence bands (e.g. predictions stated around 60% vs. around 80%) — the closer the stated and realized bars are within each band, the more trustworthy the probabilities. Bars for smaller samples are shown lighter.

Match Result

Both Teams to Score

Corners

Total Goals

Cards

Anytime Goalscorer

Goalkeeper Saves

Shots on Target

Total Points

Moneyline

Passing Yards

Rushing Yards

Spread

Points on the dashed line are perfectly calibrated. Dot size scales with sample size.

Match Result — Away win (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~25%(n=3)

Stated

25%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~37%(n=3)

Stated

37%

Realized

33%

Match Result — Draw (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~24%(n=8)

Stated

24%

Realized

25%

Match Result — Home win (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~55%(n=3)

Stated

55%

Realized

33%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~54%(n=4)

Stated

54%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~66%(n=4)

Stated

66%

Realized

75%

Corners — Over (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~57%(n=4)

Stated

57%

Realized

75%

Confidence band ~64%(n=13)

Stated

64%

Realized

46%

Confidence band ~75%(n=6)

Stated

75%

Realized

83%

Corners — Under (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~57%(n=6)

Stated

57%

Realized

17%

Confidence band ~65%(n=14)

Stated

65%

Realized

71%

Confidence band ~76%(n=12)

Stated

76%

Realized

58%

Total Goals — Over (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~53%(n=3)

Stated

53%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~73%(n=3)

Stated

73%

Realized

100%

Match Result — Away win (EPL)

Confidence band ~15%(n=11)

Stated

15%

Realized

18%

Confidence band ~26%(n=27)

Stated

26%

Realized

26%

Confidence band ~36%(n=21)

Stated

36%

Realized

29%

Confidence band ~42%(n=5)

Stated

42%

Realized

60%

Confidence band ~54%(n=6)

Stated

54%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~83%(n=3)

Stated

83%

Realized

33%

Match Result — Draw (EPL)

Confidence band ~15%(n=9)

Stated

15%

Realized

22%

Confidence band ~25%(n=73)

Stated

25%

Realized

30%

Confidence band ~31%(n=4)

Stated

31%

Realized

25%

Match Result — Home win (EPL)

Confidence band ~17%(n=4)

Stated

17%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~24%(n=8)

Stated

24%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~35%(n=24)

Stated

35%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~45%(n=13)

Stated

45%

Realized

31%

Confidence band ~57%(n=4)

Stated

57%

Realized

Confidence band ~65%(n=8)

Stated

65%

Realized

75%

Confidence band ~86%(n=3)

Stated

86%

Realized

33%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (EPL)

Confidence band ~46%(n=8)

Stated

46%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~55%(n=30)

Stated

55%

Realized

53%

Confidence band ~63%(n=26)

Stated

63%

Realized

50%

Cards — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~58%(n=9)

Stated

58%

Realized

78%

Confidence band ~66%(n=39)

Stated

66%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~72%(n=11)

Stated

72%

Realized

82%

Cards — Under (EPL)

Confidence band ~59%(n=5)

Stated

59%

Realized

60%

Confidence band ~63%(n=44)

Stated

63%

Realized

64%

Confidence band ~72%(n=28)

Stated

72%

Realized

71%

Confidence band ~80%(n=3)

Stated

80%

Realized

100%

Corners — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~25%(n=53)

Stated

25%

Realized

26%

Confidence band ~35%(n=50)

Stated

35%

Realized

24%

Confidence band ~43%(n=23)

Stated

43%

Realized

48%

Confidence band ~58%(n=26)

Stated

58%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~65%(n=90)

Stated

65%

Realized

66%

Confidence band ~74%(n=53)

Stated

74%

Realized

75%

Corners — Under (EPL)

Confidence band ~58%(n=4)

Stated

58%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~65%(n=75)

Stated

65%

Realized

63%

Confidence band ~75%(n=54)

Stated

75%

Realized

80%

Anytime Goalscorer — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~18%(n=20)

Stated

18%

Realized

15%

Confidence band ~24%(n=53)

Stated

24%

Realized

15%

Confidence band ~35%(n=12)

Stated

35%

Realized

42%

Goalkeeper Saves — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~38%(n=36)

Stated

38%

Realized

31%

Confidence band ~44%(n=35)

Stated

44%

Realized

31%

Confidence band ~51%(n=5)

Stated

51%

Realized

20%

Shots on Target — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~26%(n=31)

Stated

26%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~34%(n=45)

Stated

34%

Realized

36%

Confidence band ~42%(n=15)

Stated

42%

Realized

53%

Confidence band ~58%(n=17)

Stated

58%

Realized

59%

Confidence band ~65%(n=83)

Stated

65%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~74%(n=95)

Stated

74%

Realized

73%

Shots on Target — Under (EPL)

Confidence band ~59%(n=8)

Stated

59%

Realized

88%

Confidence band ~65%(n=51)

Stated

65%

Realized

69%

Confidence band ~74%(n=29)

Stated

74%

Realized

83%

Total Goals — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~36%(n=8)

Stated

36%

Realized

38%

Confidence band ~47%(n=11)

Stated

47%

Realized

36%

Confidence band ~55%(n=22)

Stated

55%

Realized

68%

Confidence band ~63%(n=21)

Stated

63%

Realized

48%

Match Result — Away win (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~8%(n=4)

Stated

Realized

Confidence band ~15%(n=6)

Stated

15%

Realized

17%

Confidence band ~25%(n=12)

Stated

25%

Realized

17%

Confidence band ~35%(n=10)

Stated

35%

Realized

10%

Confidence band ~45%(n=3)

Stated

45%

Realized

67%

Match Result — Draw (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~16%(n=9)

Stated

16%

Realized

11%

Confidence band ~25%(n=28)

Stated

25%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~31%(n=3)

Stated

31%

Realized

67%

Match Result — Home win (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~26%(n=6)

Stated

26%

Realized

Confidence band ~36%(n=7)

Stated

36%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~43%(n=6)

Stated

43%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~53%(n=6)

Stated

53%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~65%(n=6)

Stated

65%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~76%(n=4)

Stated

76%

Realized

100%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~38%(n=3)

Stated

38%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~43%(n=5)

Stated

43%

Realized

80%

Confidence band ~54%(n=16)

Stated

54%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~65%(n=8)

Stated

65%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~71%(n=3)

Stated

71%

Realized

67%

Corners — Over (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~58%(n=21)

Stated

58%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~65%(n=34)

Stated

65%

Realized

74%

Confidence band ~74%(n=24)

Stated

74%

Realized

58%

Corners — Under (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~57%(n=15)

Stated

57%

Realized

60%

Confidence band ~65%(n=67)

Stated

65%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~75%(n=53)

Stated

75%

Realized

74%

Anytime Goalscorer — Over (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~18%(n=24)

Stated

18%

Realized

Confidence band ~25%(n=49)

Stated

25%

Realized

18%

Confidence band ~35%(n=22)

Stated

35%

Realized

32%

Confidence band ~45%(n=6)

Stated

45%

Realized

33%

Goalkeeper Saves — Over (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~26%(n=7)

Stated

26%

Realized

29%

Confidence band ~38%(n=14)

Stated

38%

Realized

36%

Confidence band ~44%(n=52)

Stated

44%

Realized

42%

Shots on Target — Over (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~58%(n=21)

Stated

58%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~65%(n=49)

Stated

65%

Realized

65%

Confidence band ~74%(n=43)

Stated

74%

Realized

81%

Shots on Target — Under (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~58%(n=27)

Stated

58%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~66%(n=37)

Stated

66%

Realized

70%

Confidence band ~73%(n=28)

Stated

73%

Realized

64%

Total Goals — Over (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~34%(n=4)

Stated

34%

Realized

75%

Confidence band ~45%(n=6)

Stated

45%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~54%(n=7)

Stated

54%

Realized

71%

Confidence band ~64%(n=8)

Stated

64%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~72%(n=6)

Stated

72%

Realized

67%

Match Result — Away win (MLS)

Confidence band ~16%(n=49)

Stated

16%

Realized

24%

Confidence band ~25%(n=92)

Stated

25%

Realized

23%

Confidence band ~34%(n=97)

Stated

34%

Realized

29%

Confidence band ~44%(n=23)

Stated

44%

Realized

22%

Confidence band ~56%(n=5)

Stated

56%

Realized

60%

Match Result — Draw (MLS)

Confidence band ~18%(n=24)

Stated

18%

Realized

21%

Confidence band ~24%(n=252)

Stated

24%

Realized

30%

Match Result — Home win (MLS)

Confidence band ~27%(n=16)

Stated

27%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~36%(n=57)

Stated

36%

Realized

32%

Confidence band ~44%(n=81)

Stated

44%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~55%(n=49)

Stated

55%

Realized

53%

Confidence band ~63%(n=32)

Stated

63%

Realized

56%

Confidence band ~73%(n=8)

Stated

73%

Realized

63%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (MLS)

Confidence band ~48%(n=9)

Stated

48%

Realized

78%

Confidence band ~56%(n=123)

Stated

56%

Realized

64%

Confidence band ~64%(n=109)

Stated

64%

Realized

69%

Confidence band ~72%(n=13)

Stated

72%

Realized

77%

Corners — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~25%(n=129)

Stated

25%

Realized

36%

Confidence band ~35%(n=128)

Stated

35%

Realized

41%

Confidence band ~42%(n=38)

Stated

42%

Realized

42%

Confidence band ~58%(n=155)

Stated

58%

Realized

57%

Confidence band ~65%(n=171)

Stated

65%

Realized

68%

Confidence band ~74%(n=170)

Stated

74%

Realized

74%

Corners — Under (MLS)

Confidence band ~57%(n=66)

Stated

57%

Realized

55%

Confidence band ~64%(n=326)

Stated

64%

Realized

56%

Confidence band ~74%(n=248)

Stated

74%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~80%(n=3)

Stated

80%

Realized

100%

Anytime Goalscorer — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~18%(n=131)

Stated

18%

Realized

24%

Confidence band ~25%(n=200)

Stated

25%

Realized

27%

Confidence band ~35%(n=205)

Stated

35%

Realized

31%

Confidence band ~43%(n=48)

Stated

43%

Realized

35%

Goalkeeper Saves — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~27%(n=9)

Stated

27%

Realized

22%

Confidence band ~37%(n=133)

Stated

37%

Realized

35%

Confidence band ~43%(n=218)

Stated

43%

Realized

47%

Confidence band ~56%(n=50)

Stated

56%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~61%(n=12)

Stated

61%

Realized

42%

Shots on Target — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~25%(n=125)

Stated

25%

Realized

46%

Confidence band ~35%(n=105)

Stated

35%

Realized

45%

Confidence band ~43%(n=57)

Stated

43%

Realized

54%

Confidence band ~58%(n=93)

Stated

58%

Realized

72%

Confidence band ~65%(n=287)

Stated

65%

Realized

73%

Confidence band ~76%(n=142)

Stated

76%

Realized

89%

Shots on Target — Under (MLS)

Confidence band ~57%(n=72)

Stated

57%

Realized

32%

Confidence band ~64%(n=162)

Stated

64%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~75%(n=137)

Stated

75%

Realized

51%

Confidence band ~80%(n=4)

Stated

80%

Realized

50%

Total Goals — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~47%(n=20)

Stated

47%

Realized

65%

Confidence band ~56%(n=101)

Stated

56%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~64%(n=97)

Stated

64%

Realized

72%

Confidence band ~74%(n=21)

Stated

74%

Realized

71%

Total Points — Over (NBA)

Confidence band ~58%(n=107)

Stated

58%

Realized

49%

Confidence band ~62%(n=107)

Stated

62%

Realized

50%

Total Points — Under (NBA)

Confidence band ~58%(n=142)

Stated

58%

Realized

66%

Confidence band ~63%(n=119)

Stated

63%

Realized

69%

Moneyline — Away (NFL)

Confidence band ~16%(n=8)

Stated

16%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~25%(n=24)

Stated

25%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~34%(n=19)

Stated

34%

Realized

16%

Confidence band ~44%(n=13)

Stated

44%

Realized

23%

Confidence band ~56%(n=5)

Stated

56%

Realized

40%

Confidence band ~66%(n=6)

Stated

66%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~75%(n=6)

Stated

75%

Realized

83%

Confidence band ~83%(n=3)

Stated

83%

Realized

67%

Moneyline — Home (NFL)

Confidence band ~17%(n=3)

Stated

17%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~25%(n=7)

Stated

25%

Realized

14%

Confidence band ~34%(n=7)

Stated

34%

Realized

29%

Confidence band ~43%(n=9)

Stated

43%

Realized

56%

Confidence band ~54%(n=7)

Stated

54%

Realized

86%

Confidence band ~66%(n=11)

Stated

66%

Realized

73%

Confidence band ~75%(n=19)

Stated

75%

Realized

47%

Confidence band ~84%(n=8)

Stated

84%

Realized

50%

Passing Yards — Over (NFL)

Confidence band ~65%(n=52)

Stated

65%

Realized

73%

Confidence band ~76%(n=32)

Stated

76%

Realized

84%

Passing Yards — Under (NFL)

Confidence band ~66%(n=52)

Stated

66%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~76%(n=46)

Stated

76%

Realized

65%

Rushing Yards — Over (NFL)

Confidence band ~65%(n=73)

Stated

65%

Realized

55%

Confidence band ~75%(n=79)

Stated

75%

Realized

61%

Rushing Yards — Under (NFL)

Confidence band ~66%(n=87)

Stated

66%

Realized

75%

Confidence band ~76%(n=102)

Stated

76%

Realized

75%

Spread — Away (NFL)

Confidence band ~27%(n=4)

Stated

27%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~36%(n=28)

Stated

36%

Realized

57%

Confidence band ~43%(n=15)

Stated

43%

Realized

53%

Confidence band ~56%(n=8)

Stated

56%

Realized

38%

Confidence band ~65%(n=9)

Stated

65%

Realized

44%

Confidence band ~73%(n=7)

Stated

73%

Realized

43%

Spread — Home (NFL)

Confidence band ~27%(n=10)

Stated

27%

Realized

60%

Confidence band ~35%(n=15)

Stated

35%

Realized

47%

Confidence band ~43%(n=14)

Stated

43%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~56%(n=9)

Stated

56%

Realized

44%

Confidence band ~64%(n=17)

Stated

64%

Realized

35%

Confidence band ~73%(n=4)

Stated

73%

Realized

50%

Total Points — Over (NFL)

Confidence band ~35%(n=7)

Stated

35%

Realized

57%

Confidence band ~44%(n=17)

Stated

44%

Realized

35%

Confidence band ~54%(n=8)

Stated

54%

Realized

13%

Confidence band ~66%(n=14)

Stated

66%

Realized

86%

Confidence band ~72%(n=5)

Stated

72%

Realized

20%

Total Points — Under (NFL)

Confidence band ~27%(n=6)

Stated

27%

Realized

83%

Confidence band ~36%(n=19)

Stated

36%

Realized

26%

Confidence band ~46%(n=9)

Stated

46%

Realized

78%

Confidence band ~56%(n=10)

Stated

56%

Realized

60%

Confidence band ~65%(n=5)

Stated

65%

Realized

60%

Match Result — Away win (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~7%(n=3)

Stated

Realized

Confidence band ~15%(n=20)

Stated

15%

Realized

15%

Confidence band ~25%(n=20)

Stated

25%

Realized

30%

Confidence band ~34%(n=21)

Stated

34%

Realized

24%

Confidence band ~44%(n=6)

Stated

44%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~54%(n=11)

Stated

54%

Realized

73%

Confidence band ~64%(n=4)

Stated

64%

Realized

50%

Match Result — Draw (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~16%(n=9)

Stated

16%

Realized

11%

Confidence band ~25%(n=85)

Stated

25%

Realized

16%

Confidence band ~31%(n=6)

Stated

31%

Realized

17%

Match Result — Home win (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~16%(n=9)

Stated

16%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~25%(n=22)

Stated

25%

Realized

14%

Confidence band ~35%(n=17)

Stated

35%

Realized

29%

Confidence band ~44%(n=15)

Stated

44%

Realized

53%

Confidence band ~55%(n=9)

Stated

55%

Realized

89%

Confidence band ~64%(n=14)

Stated

64%

Realized

71%

Confidence band ~74%(n=4)

Stated

74%

Realized

100%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~38%(n=5)

Stated

38%

Realized

20%

Confidence band ~46%(n=26)

Stated

46%

Realized

62%

Confidence band ~53%(n=20)

Stated

53%

Realized

65%

Confidence band ~64%(n=7)

Stated

64%

Realized

86%

Cards — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~58%(n=15)

Stated

58%

Realized

53%

Confidence band ~65%(n=47)

Stated

65%

Realized

47%

Confidence band ~71%(n=4)

Stated

71%

Realized

75%

Cards — Under (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~58%(n=3)

Stated

58%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~64%(n=54)

Stated

64%

Realized

78%

Confidence band ~72%(n=43)

Stated

72%

Realized

77%

Corners — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~25%(n=63)

Stated

25%

Realized

24%

Confidence band ~36%(n=59)

Stated

36%

Realized

41%

Confidence band ~41%(n=20)

Stated

41%

Realized

30%

Confidence band ~58%(n=60)

Stated

58%

Realized

48%

Confidence band ~66%(n=89)

Stated

66%

Realized

58%

Confidence band ~74%(n=67)

Stated

74%

Realized

63%

Corners — Under (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~59%(n=9)

Stated

59%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~65%(n=80)

Stated

65%

Realized

65%

Confidence band ~75%(n=65)

Stated

75%

Realized

78%

Anytime Goalscorer — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~18%(n=33)

Stated

18%

Realized

15%

Confidence band ~24%(n=69)

Stated

24%

Realized

28%

Confidence band ~36%(n=14)

Stated

36%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~43%(n=5)

Stated

43%

Realized

20%

Goalkeeper Saves — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~37%(n=26)

Stated

37%

Realized

38%

Confidence band ~45%(n=48)

Stated

45%

Realized

38%

Confidence band ~53%(n=9)

Stated

53%

Realized

44%

Shots on Target — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~26%(n=32)

Stated

26%

Realized

28%

Confidence band ~35%(n=60)

Stated

35%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~42%(n=16)

Stated

42%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~58%(n=49)

Stated

58%

Realized

71%

Confidence band ~65%(n=80)

Stated

65%

Realized

68%

Confidence band ~75%(n=131)

Stated

75%

Realized

79%

Shots on Target — Under (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~58%(n=21)

Stated

58%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~64%(n=46)

Stated

64%

Realized

54%

Confidence band ~74%(n=41)

Stated

74%

Realized

63%

Total Goals — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~36%(n=11)

Stated

36%

Realized

45%

Confidence band ~45%(n=30)

Stated

45%

Realized

57%

Confidence band ~55%(n=11)

Stated

55%

Realized

64%

Confidence band ~65%(n=12)

Stated

65%

Realized

67%

Home advantage over time

Dixon-Coles fits a home-advantage term (“gamma”) separately for every league and season, using only that season's finished matches. Higher means a bigger edge for the home side that season.

EPL

LA_LIGA

MLS

SERIE_A

Season labels along the axis follow the first league plotted; hover a point for its own league and season.

Prediction log

Every individually graded prediction — statement, stated probability, outcome, and what actually happened. Most recent first.

Outcome

Prediction	Fixture	Stated	Actual

Sport

Graded predictions

Mean abs. gap

Soccer

8,963

7.3 pp

Basketball (NBA)

475

8.8 pp

Football (NFL)

918

13.6 pp

By market

Sport	League	Season	Market	N	Stated	Realized
Soccer	BUNDESLIGA	2026-27	Match Result	27	33.3%	33.3%
Soccer	BUNDESLIGA	2026-27	Both Teams to Score	9	61.5%	66.7%
Soccer	BUNDESLIGA	2026-27	Corners	55	66.7%	58.2%
Soccer	BUNDESLIGA	2026-27	Total Goals	9	61.3%	55.6%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Match Result	233	32.9%	31.8%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Both Teams to Score	64	57.2%	51.6%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Cards	139	66.3%	69.1%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Corners	430	57.4%	56.0%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Anytime Goalscorer	87	24.8%	20.7%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Goalkeeper Saves	77	41.3%	29.9%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Shots on Target	375	59.9%	64.5%
Soccer	EPL	2026-27	Total Goals	65	53.3%	53.8%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Match Result	113	32.4%	31.0%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Both Teams to Score	35	55.0%	57.1%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Corners	216	67.4%	66.7%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Anytime Goalscorer	101	26.3%	17.8%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Goalkeeper Saves	74	41.1%	39.2%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Shots on Target	206	66.7%	68.0%
Soccer	LA_LIGA	2026-27	Total Goals	33	56.0%	63.6%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Match Result	788	32.6%	32.7%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Both Teams to Score	255	60.0%	67.1%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Corners	1434	59.4%	58.1%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Anytime Goalscorer	586	28.5%	28.3%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Goalkeeper Saves	423	43.1%	43.0%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Shots on Target	1184	58.3%	60.3%
Soccer	MLS	2026	Total Goals	240	60.1%	69.6%
Basketball (NBA)	NBA	2026-27	Total Points	475	60.2%	59.4%
Football (NFL)	NFL	2026	Moneyline	157	47.6%	45.2%
Football (NFL)	NFL	2026	Passing Yards	182	69.9%	67.0%
Football (NFL)	NFL	2026	Rushing Yards	341	71.1%	67.2%
Football (NFL)	NFL	2026	Spread	146	47.2%	47.9%
Football (NFL)	NFL	2026	Total Points	104	48.5%	50.0%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Match Result	279	32.2%	31.2%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Both Teams to Score	58	50.0%	62.1%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Cards	168	66.3%	65.5%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Corners	513	57.3%	54.0%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Anytime Goalscorer	122	24.6%	25.4%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Goalkeeper Saves	85	42.9%	38.8%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Shots on Target	476	60.0%	63.7%
Soccer	SERIE_A	2026-27	Total Goals	66	48.9%	57.6%
Soccer	WC	2026	Match Result	3⚠	33.3%	33.3%
Soccer	WC	2026	Both Teams to Score	1⚠	63.2%	100.0%
Soccer	WC	2026	Total Goals	1⚠	63.4%	0.0%

⚠ Small sample (fewer than 5 predictions) — treat with caution.

Calibration

Match Result

Both Teams to Score

Corners

Total Goals

Cards

Anytime Goalscorer

Goalkeeper Saves

Shots on Target

Total Points

Moneyline

Passing Yards

Rushing Yards

Spread

Points on the dashed line are perfectly calibrated. Dot size scales with sample size.

Match Result — Away win (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~25%(n=3)

Stated

25%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~37%(n=3)

Stated

37%

Realized

33%

Match Result — Draw (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~24%(n=8)

Stated

24%

Realized

25%

Match Result — Home win (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~55%(n=3)

Stated

55%

Realized

33%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~54%(n=4)

Stated

54%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~66%(n=4)

Stated

66%

Realized

75%

Corners — Over (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~57%(n=4)

Stated

57%

Realized

75%

Confidence band ~64%(n=13)

Stated

64%

Realized

46%

Confidence band ~75%(n=6)

Stated

75%

Realized

83%

Corners — Under (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~57%(n=6)

Stated

57%

Realized

17%

Confidence band ~65%(n=14)

Stated

65%

Realized

71%

Confidence band ~76%(n=12)

Stated

76%

Realized

58%

Total Goals — Over (BUNDESLIGA)

Confidence band ~53%(n=3)

Stated

53%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~73%(n=3)

Stated

73%

Realized

100%

Match Result — Away win (EPL)

Confidence band ~15%(n=11)

Stated

15%

Realized

18%

Confidence band ~26%(n=27)

Stated

26%

Realized

26%

Confidence band ~36%(n=21)

Stated

36%

Realized

29%

Confidence band ~42%(n=5)

Stated

42%

Realized

60%

Confidence band ~54%(n=6)

Stated

54%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~83%(n=3)

Stated

83%

Realized

33%

Match Result — Draw (EPL)

Confidence band ~15%(n=9)

Stated

15%

Realized

22%

Confidence band ~25%(n=73)

Stated

25%

Realized

30%

Confidence band ~31%(n=4)

Stated

31%

Realized

25%

Match Result — Home win (EPL)

Confidence band ~17%(n=4)

Stated

17%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~24%(n=8)

Stated

24%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~35%(n=24)

Stated

35%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~45%(n=13)

Stated

45%

Realized

31%

Confidence band ~57%(n=4)

Stated

57%

Realized

Confidence band ~65%(n=8)

Stated

65%

Realized

75%

Confidence band ~86%(n=3)

Stated

86%

Realized

33%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (EPL)

Confidence band ~46%(n=8)

Stated

46%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~55%(n=30)

Stated

55%

Realized

53%

Confidence band ~63%(n=26)

Stated

63%

Realized

50%

Cards — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~58%(n=9)

Stated

58%

Realized

78%

Confidence band ~66%(n=39)

Stated

66%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~72%(n=11)

Stated

72%

Realized

82%

Cards — Under (EPL)

Confidence band ~59%(n=5)

Stated

59%

Realized

60%

Confidence band ~63%(n=44)

Stated

63%

Realized

64%

Confidence band ~72%(n=28)

Stated

72%

Realized

71%

Confidence band ~80%(n=3)

Stated

80%

Realized

100%

Corners — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~25%(n=53)

Stated

25%

Realized

26%

Confidence band ~35%(n=50)

Stated

35%

Realized

24%

Confidence band ~43%(n=23)

Stated

43%

Realized

48%

Confidence band ~58%(n=26)

Stated

58%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~65%(n=90)

Stated

65%

Realized

66%

Confidence band ~74%(n=53)

Stated

74%

Realized

75%

Corners — Under (EPL)

Confidence band ~58%(n=4)

Stated

58%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~65%(n=75)

Stated

65%

Realized

63%

Confidence band ~75%(n=54)

Stated

75%

Realized

80%

Anytime Goalscorer — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~18%(n=20)

Stated

18%

Realized

15%

Confidence band ~24%(n=53)

Stated

24%

Realized

15%

Confidence band ~35%(n=12)

Stated

35%

Realized

42%

Goalkeeper Saves — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~38%(n=36)

Stated

38%

Realized

31%

Confidence band ~44%(n=35)

Stated

44%

Realized

31%

Confidence band ~51%(n=5)

Stated

51%

Realized

20%

Shots on Target — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~26%(n=31)

Stated

26%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~34%(n=45)

Stated

34%

Realized

36%

Confidence band ~42%(n=15)

Stated

42%

Realized

53%

Confidence band ~58%(n=17)

Stated

58%

Realized

59%

Confidence band ~65%(n=83)

Stated

65%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~74%(n=95)

Stated

74%

Realized

73%

Shots on Target — Under (EPL)

Confidence band ~59%(n=8)

Stated

59%

Realized

88%

Confidence band ~65%(n=51)

Stated

65%

Realized

69%

Confidence band ~74%(n=29)

Stated

74%

Realized

83%

Total Goals — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~36%(n=8)

Stated

36%

Realized

38%

Confidence band ~47%(n=11)

Stated

47%

Realized

36%

Confidence band ~55%(n=22)

Stated

55%

Realized

68%

Confidence band ~63%(n=21)

Stated

63%

Realized

48%

Match Result — Away win (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~8%(n=4)

Stated

Realized

Confidence band ~15%(n=6)

Stated

15%

Realized

17%

Confidence band ~25%(n=12)

Stated

25%

Realized

17%

Confidence band ~35%(n=10)

Stated

35%

Realized

10%

Confidence band ~45%(n=3)

Stated

45%

Realized

67%

Match Result — Draw (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~16%(n=9)

Stated

16%

Realized

11%

Confidence band ~25%(n=28)

Stated

25%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~31%(n=3)

Stated

31%

Realized

67%

Match Result — Home win (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~26%(n=6)

Stated

26%

Realized

Confidence band ~36%(n=7)

Stated

36%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~43%(n=6)

Stated

43%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~53%(n=6)

Stated

53%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~65%(n=6)

Stated

65%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~76%(n=4)

Stated

76%

Realized

100%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~38%(n=3)

Stated

38%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~43%(n=5)

Stated

43%

Realized

80%

Confidence band ~54%(n=16)

Stated

54%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~65%(n=8)

Stated

65%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~71%(n=3)

Stated

71%

Realized

67%

Corners — Over (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~58%(n=21)

Stated

58%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~65%(n=34)

Stated

65%

Realized

74%

Confidence band ~74%(n=24)

Stated

74%

Realized

58%

Corners — Under (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~57%(n=15)

Stated

57%

Realized

60%

Confidence band ~65%(n=67)

Stated

65%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~75%(n=53)

Stated

75%

Realized

74%

Anytime Goalscorer — Over (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~18%(n=24)

Stated

18%

Realized

Confidence band ~25%(n=49)

Stated

25%

Realized

18%

Confidence band ~35%(n=22)

Stated

35%

Realized

32%

Confidence band ~45%(n=6)

Stated

45%

Realized

33%

Goalkeeper Saves — Over (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~26%(n=7)

Stated

26%

Realized

29%

Confidence band ~38%(n=14)

Stated

38%

Realized

36%

Confidence band ~44%(n=52)

Stated

44%

Realized

42%

Shots on Target — Over (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~58%(n=21)

Stated

58%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~65%(n=49)

Stated

65%

Realized

65%

Confidence band ~74%(n=43)

Stated

74%

Realized

81%

Shots on Target — Under (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~58%(n=27)

Stated

58%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~66%(n=37)

Stated

66%

Realized

70%

Confidence band ~73%(n=28)

Stated

73%

Realized

64%

Total Goals — Over (LA_LIGA)

Confidence band ~34%(n=4)

Stated

34%

Realized

75%

Confidence band ~45%(n=6)

Stated

45%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~54%(n=7)

Stated

54%

Realized

71%

Confidence band ~64%(n=8)

Stated

64%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~72%(n=6)

Stated

72%

Realized

67%

Match Result — Away win (MLS)

Confidence band ~16%(n=49)

Stated

16%

Realized

24%

Confidence band ~25%(n=92)

Stated

25%

Realized

23%

Confidence band ~34%(n=97)

Stated

34%

Realized

29%

Confidence band ~44%(n=23)

Stated

44%

Realized

22%

Confidence band ~56%(n=5)

Stated

56%

Realized

60%

Match Result — Draw (MLS)

Confidence band ~18%(n=24)

Stated

18%

Realized

21%

Confidence band ~24%(n=252)

Stated

24%

Realized

30%

Match Result — Home win (MLS)

Confidence band ~27%(n=16)

Stated

27%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~36%(n=57)

Stated

36%

Realized

32%

Confidence band ~44%(n=81)

Stated

44%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~55%(n=49)

Stated

55%

Realized

53%

Confidence band ~63%(n=32)

Stated

63%

Realized

56%

Confidence band ~73%(n=8)

Stated

73%

Realized

63%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (MLS)

Confidence band ~48%(n=9)

Stated

48%

Realized

78%

Confidence band ~56%(n=123)

Stated

56%

Realized

64%

Confidence band ~64%(n=109)

Stated

64%

Realized

69%

Confidence band ~72%(n=13)

Stated

72%

Realized

77%

Corners — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~25%(n=129)

Stated

25%

Realized

36%

Confidence band ~35%(n=128)

Stated

35%

Realized

41%

Confidence band ~42%(n=38)

Stated

42%

Realized

42%

Confidence band ~58%(n=155)

Stated

58%

Realized

57%

Confidence band ~65%(n=171)

Stated

65%

Realized

68%

Confidence band ~74%(n=170)

Stated

74%

Realized

74%

Corners — Under (MLS)

Confidence band ~57%(n=66)

Stated

57%

Realized

55%

Confidence band ~64%(n=326)

Stated

64%

Realized

56%

Confidence band ~74%(n=248)

Stated

74%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~80%(n=3)

Stated

80%

Realized

100%

Anytime Goalscorer — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~18%(n=131)

Stated

18%

Realized

24%

Confidence band ~25%(n=200)

Stated

25%

Realized

27%

Confidence band ~35%(n=205)

Stated

35%

Realized

31%

Confidence band ~43%(n=48)

Stated

43%

Realized

35%

Goalkeeper Saves — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~27%(n=9)

Stated

27%

Realized

22%

Confidence band ~37%(n=133)

Stated

37%

Realized

35%

Confidence band ~43%(n=218)

Stated

43%

Realized

47%

Confidence band ~56%(n=50)

Stated

56%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~61%(n=12)

Stated

61%

Realized

42%

Shots on Target — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~25%(n=125)

Stated

25%

Realized

46%

Confidence band ~35%(n=105)

Stated

35%

Realized

45%

Confidence band ~43%(n=57)

Stated

43%

Realized

54%

Confidence band ~58%(n=93)

Stated

58%

Realized

72%

Confidence band ~65%(n=287)

Stated

65%

Realized

73%

Confidence band ~76%(n=142)

Stated

76%

Realized

89%

Shots on Target — Under (MLS)

Confidence band ~57%(n=72)

Stated

57%

Realized

32%

Confidence band ~64%(n=162)

Stated

64%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~75%(n=137)

Stated

75%

Realized

51%

Confidence band ~80%(n=4)

Stated

80%

Realized

50%

Total Goals — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~47%(n=20)

Stated

47%

Realized

65%

Confidence band ~56%(n=101)

Stated

56%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~64%(n=97)

Stated

64%

Realized

72%

Confidence band ~74%(n=21)

Stated

74%

Realized

71%

Total Points — Over (NBA)

Confidence band ~58%(n=107)

Stated

58%

Realized

49%

Confidence band ~62%(n=107)

Stated

62%

Realized

50%

Total Points — Under (NBA)

Confidence band ~58%(n=142)

Stated

58%

Realized

66%

Confidence band ~63%(n=119)

Stated

63%

Realized

69%

Moneyline — Away (NFL)

Confidence band ~16%(n=8)

Stated

16%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~25%(n=24)

Stated

25%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~34%(n=19)

Stated

34%

Realized

16%

Confidence band ~44%(n=13)

Stated

44%

Realized

23%

Confidence band ~56%(n=5)

Stated

56%

Realized

40%

Confidence band ~66%(n=6)

Stated

66%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~75%(n=6)

Stated

75%

Realized

83%

Confidence band ~83%(n=3)

Stated

83%

Realized

67%

Moneyline — Home (NFL)

Confidence band ~17%(n=3)

Stated

17%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~25%(n=7)

Stated

25%

Realized

14%

Confidence band ~34%(n=7)

Stated

34%

Realized

29%

Confidence band ~43%(n=9)

Stated

43%

Realized

56%

Confidence band ~54%(n=7)

Stated

54%

Realized

86%

Confidence band ~66%(n=11)

Stated

66%

Realized

73%

Confidence band ~75%(n=19)

Stated

75%

Realized

47%

Confidence band ~84%(n=8)

Stated

84%

Realized

50%

Passing Yards — Over (NFL)

Confidence band ~65%(n=52)

Stated

65%

Realized

73%

Confidence band ~76%(n=32)

Stated

76%

Realized

84%

Passing Yards — Under (NFL)

Confidence band ~66%(n=52)

Stated

66%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~76%(n=46)

Stated

76%

Realized

65%

Rushing Yards — Over (NFL)

Confidence band ~65%(n=73)

Stated

65%

Realized

55%

Confidence band ~75%(n=79)

Stated

75%

Realized

61%

Rushing Yards — Under (NFL)

Confidence band ~66%(n=87)

Stated

66%

Realized

75%

Confidence band ~76%(n=102)

Stated

76%

Realized

75%

Spread — Away (NFL)

Confidence band ~27%(n=4)

Stated

27%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~36%(n=28)

Stated

36%

Realized

57%

Confidence band ~43%(n=15)

Stated

43%

Realized

53%

Confidence band ~56%(n=8)

Stated

56%

Realized

38%

Confidence band ~65%(n=9)

Stated

65%

Realized

44%

Confidence band ~73%(n=7)

Stated

73%

Realized

43%

Spread — Home (NFL)

Confidence band ~27%(n=10)

Stated

27%

Realized

60%

Confidence band ~35%(n=15)

Stated

35%

Realized

47%

Confidence band ~43%(n=14)

Stated

43%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~56%(n=9)

Stated

56%

Realized

44%

Confidence band ~64%(n=17)

Stated

64%

Realized

35%

Confidence band ~73%(n=4)

Stated

73%

Realized

50%

Total Points — Over (NFL)

Confidence band ~35%(n=7)

Stated

35%

Realized

57%

Confidence band ~44%(n=17)

Stated

44%

Realized

35%

Confidence band ~54%(n=8)

Stated

54%

Realized

13%

Confidence band ~66%(n=14)

Stated

66%

Realized

86%

Confidence band ~72%(n=5)

Stated

72%

Realized

20%

Total Points — Under (NFL)

Confidence band ~27%(n=6)

Stated

27%

Realized

83%

Confidence band ~36%(n=19)

Stated

36%

Realized

26%

Confidence band ~46%(n=9)

Stated

46%

Realized

78%

Confidence band ~56%(n=10)

Stated

56%

Realized

60%

Confidence band ~65%(n=5)

Stated

65%

Realized

60%

Match Result — Away win (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~7%(n=3)

Stated

Realized

Confidence band ~15%(n=20)

Stated

15%

Realized

15%

Confidence band ~25%(n=20)

Stated

25%

Realized

30%

Confidence band ~34%(n=21)

Stated

34%

Realized

24%

Confidence band ~44%(n=6)

Stated

44%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~54%(n=11)

Stated

54%

Realized

73%

Confidence band ~64%(n=4)

Stated

64%

Realized

50%

Match Result — Draw (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~16%(n=9)

Stated

16%

Realized

11%

Confidence band ~25%(n=85)

Stated

25%

Realized

16%

Confidence band ~31%(n=6)

Stated

31%

Realized

17%

Match Result — Home win (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~16%(n=9)

Stated

16%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~25%(n=22)

Stated

25%

Realized

14%

Confidence band ~35%(n=17)

Stated

35%

Realized

29%

Confidence band ~44%(n=15)

Stated

44%

Realized

53%

Confidence band ~55%(n=9)

Stated

55%

Realized

89%

Confidence band ~64%(n=14)

Stated

64%

Realized

71%

Confidence band ~74%(n=4)

Stated

74%

Realized

100%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~38%(n=5)

Stated

38%

Realized

20%

Confidence band ~46%(n=26)

Stated

46%

Realized

62%

Confidence band ~53%(n=20)

Stated

53%

Realized

65%

Confidence band ~64%(n=7)

Stated

64%

Realized

86%

Cards — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~58%(n=15)

Stated

58%

Realized

53%

Confidence band ~65%(n=47)

Stated

65%

Realized

47%

Confidence band ~71%(n=4)

Stated

71%

Realized

75%

Cards — Under (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~58%(n=3)

Stated

58%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~64%(n=54)

Stated

64%

Realized

78%

Confidence band ~72%(n=43)

Stated

72%

Realized

77%

Corners — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~25%(n=63)

Stated

25%

Realized

24%

Confidence band ~36%(n=59)

Stated

36%

Realized

41%

Confidence band ~41%(n=20)

Stated

41%

Realized

30%

Confidence band ~58%(n=60)

Stated

58%

Realized

48%

Confidence band ~66%(n=89)

Stated

66%

Realized

58%

Confidence band ~74%(n=67)

Stated

74%

Realized

63%

Corners — Under (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~59%(n=9)

Stated

59%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~65%(n=80)

Stated

65%

Realized

65%

Confidence band ~75%(n=65)

Stated

75%

Realized

78%

Anytime Goalscorer — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~18%(n=33)

Stated

18%

Realized

15%

Confidence band ~24%(n=69)

Stated

24%

Realized

28%

Confidence band ~36%(n=14)

Stated

36%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~43%(n=5)

Stated

43%

Realized

20%

Goalkeeper Saves — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~37%(n=26)

Stated

37%

Realized

38%

Confidence band ~45%(n=48)

Stated

45%

Realized

38%

Confidence band ~53%(n=9)

Stated

53%

Realized

44%

Shots on Target — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~26%(n=32)

Stated

26%

Realized

28%

Confidence band ~35%(n=60)

Stated

35%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~42%(n=16)

Stated

42%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~58%(n=49)

Stated

58%

Realized

71%

Confidence band ~65%(n=80)

Stated

65%

Realized

68%

Confidence band ~75%(n=131)

Stated

75%

Realized

79%

Shots on Target — Under (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~58%(n=21)

Stated

58%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~64%(n=46)

Stated

64%

Realized

54%

Confidence band ~74%(n=41)

Stated

74%

Realized

63%

Total Goals — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~36%(n=11)

Stated

36%

Realized

45%

Confidence band ~45%(n=30)

Stated

45%

Realized

57%

Confidence band ~55%(n=11)

Stated

55%

Realized

64%

Confidence band ~65%(n=12)

Stated

65%

Realized

67%

Home advantage over time

Dixon-Coles fits a home-advantage term (“gamma”) separately for every league and season, using only that season's finished matches. Higher means a bigger edge for the home side that season.

EPL

LA_LIGA

MLS

SERIE_A

Season labels along the axis follow the first league plotted; hover a point for its own league and season.