Track Record

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and graded automatically once the match finishes. This page shows the honest, unfiltered record — including the misses.

Biggest Misses Download CSV

Total graded predictions

2,571

LeagueSeasonMarket

By market

League	Season	Market	N	Stated	Realized
EPL	2026-27	Match Result	53	34.0%	34.0%
EPL	2026-27	Both Teams to Score	17	55.4%	58.8%
EPL	2026-27	Corners	92	47.2%	44.6%
EPL	2026-27	Shots on Target	80	51.1%	57.5%
EPL	2026-27	Total Goals	18	53.5%	55.6%
MLS	2026	Match Result	320	32.7%	32.8%
MLS	2026	Both Teams to Score	103	59.6%	67.0%
MLS	2026	Corners	539	47.5%	49.2%
MLS	2026	Anytime Goalscorer	213	28.1%	24.4%
MLS	2026	Goalkeeper Saves	150	42.5%	45.3%
MLS	2026	Shots on Target	567	49.1%	57.9%
MLS	2026	Total Goals	100	59.5%	64.0%
SERIE_A	2026-27	Match Result	60	33.3%	33.3%
SERIE_A	2026-27	Both Teams to Score	20	47.4%	35.0%
SERIE_A	2026-27	Corners	115	46.9%	33.0%
SERIE_A	2026-27	Shots on Target	99	51.2%	55.6%
SERIE_A	2026-27	Total Goals	20	47.4%	45.0%
WC	2026	Match Result	3⚠	33.3%	33.3%
WC	2026	Both Teams to Score	1⚠	63.2%	100.0%
WC	2026	Total Goals	1⚠	63.4%	0.0%

⚠ marks a market with fewer than 5 graded predictions -- treat those numbers cautiously.

Calibration

A well-calibrated model's stated confidence should roughly match how often it's actually right. Each market is broken into confidence bands (e.g. predictions stated around 60% vs. around 80%) — the closer the stated and realized bars are within each band, the more trustworthy the probabilities. Bars for smaller samples are shown lighter.

Match Result

Both Teams to Score

Corners

Shots on Target

Total Goals

Anytime Goalscorer

Goalkeeper Saves

Points on the dashed line are perfectly calibrated. Dot size scales with sample size.

Match Result — Away win (EPL)

Confidence band ~27%(n=4)

Stated

27%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~35%(n=6)

Stated

35%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~54%(n=3)

Stated

54%

Realized

67%

Match Result — Draw (EPL)

Confidence band ~26%(n=13)

Stated

26%

Realized

31%

Match Result — Home win (EPL)

Confidence band ~36%(n=6)

Stated

36%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~45%(n=5)

Stated

45%

Realized

60%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (EPL)

Confidence band ~47%(n=3)

Stated

47%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~55%(n=10)

Stated

55%

Realized

70%

Confidence band ~64%(n=4)

Stated

64%

Realized

50%

Corners — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~25%(n=23)

Stated

25%

Realized

26%

Confidence band ~35%(n=21)

Stated

35%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~43%(n=8)

Stated

43%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~57%(n=6)

Stated

57%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~65%(n=22)

Stated

65%

Realized

55%

Confidence band ~74%(n=12)

Stated

74%

Realized

67%

Shots on Target — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~27%(n=14)

Stated

27%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~34%(n=18)

Stated

34%

Realized

28%

Confidence band ~42%(n=7)

Stated

42%

Realized

57%

Confidence band ~58%(n=4)

Stated

58%

Realized

75%

Confidence band ~65%(n=18)

Stated

65%

Realized

83%

Confidence band ~74%(n=19)

Stated

74%

Realized

63%

Total Goals — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~46%(n=4)

Stated

46%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~54%(n=6)

Stated

54%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~63%(n=6)

Stated

63%

Realized

83%

Match Result — Away win (MLS)

Confidence band ~16%(n=20)

Stated

16%

Realized

30%

Confidence band ~26%(n=34)

Stated

26%

Realized

26%

Confidence band ~34%(n=45)

Stated

34%

Realized

27%

Confidence band ~43%(n=6)

Stated

43%

Realized

Match Result — Draw (MLS)

Confidence band ~17%(n=10)

Stated

17%

Realized

20%

Confidence band ~24%(n=101)

Stated

24%

Realized

31%

Match Result — Home win (MLS)

Confidence band ~25%(n=5)

Stated

25%

Realized

20%

Confidence band ~36%(n=25)

Stated

36%

Realized

40%

Confidence band ~45%(n=35)

Stated

45%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~55%(n=21)

Stated

55%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~63%(n=10)

Stated

63%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~73%(n=4)

Stated

73%

Realized

75%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (MLS)

Confidence band ~49%(n=3)

Stated

49%

Realized

100%

Confidence band ~56%(n=54)

Stated

56%

Realized

65%

Confidence band ~64%(n=39)

Stated

64%

Realized

69%

Confidence band ~71%(n=6)

Stated

71%

Realized

67%

Corners — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~25%(n=126)

Stated

25%

Realized

36%

Confidence band ~35%(n=127)

Stated

35%

Realized

40%

Confidence band ~42%(n=37)

Stated

42%

Realized

41%

Confidence band ~57%(n=69)

Stated

57%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~64%(n=44)

Stated

64%

Realized

66%

Confidence band ~75%(n=80)

Stated

75%

Realized

75%

Corners — Under (MLS)

Confidence band ~56%(n=3)

Stated

56%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~63%(n=30)

Stated

63%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~74%(n=23)

Stated

74%

Realized

57%

Anytime Goalscorer — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~18%(n=56)

Stated

18%

Realized

30%

Confidence band ~25%(n=66)

Stated

25%

Realized

18%

Confidence band ~35%(n=74)

Stated

35%

Realized

26%

Confidence band ~43%(n=17)

Stated

43%

Realized

24%

Goalkeeper Saves — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~37%(n=48)

Stated

37%

Realized

38%

Confidence band ~43%(n=82)

Stated

43%

Realized

49%

Confidence band ~56%(n=16)

Stated

56%

Realized

50%

Shots on Target — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~25%(n=121)

Stated

25%

Realized

46%

Confidence band ~35%(n=103)

Stated

35%

Realized

46%

Confidence band ~43%(n=56)

Stated

43%

Realized

55%

Confidence band ~58%(n=45)

Stated

58%

Realized

71%

Confidence band ~65%(n=154)

Stated

65%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~77%(n=38)

Stated

77%

Realized

89%

Shots on Target — Under (MLS)

Confidence band ~57%(n=10)

Stated

57%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~63%(n=20)

Stated

63%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~75%(n=19)

Stated

75%

Realized

47%

Total Goals — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~48%(n=9)

Stated

48%

Realized

56%

Confidence band ~56%(n=49)

Stated

56%

Realized

63%

Confidence band ~64%(n=31)

Stated

64%

Realized

68%

Confidence band ~73%(n=11)

Stated

73%

Realized

64%

Match Result — Away win (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~15%(n=4)

Stated

15%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~25%(n=4)

Stated

25%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~33%(n=4)

Stated

33%

Realized

75%

Confidence band ~53%(n=4)

Stated

53%

Realized

75%

Match Result — Draw (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~25%(n=16)

Stated

25%

Realized

Match Result — Home win (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~13%(n=3)

Stated

13%

Realized

Confidence band ~23%(n=4)

Stated

23%

Realized

Confidence band ~38%(n=4)

Stated

38%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~63%(n=4)

Stated

63%

Realized

75%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~37%(n=3)

Stated

37%

Realized

Confidence band ~46%(n=9)

Stated

46%

Realized

44%

Confidence band ~53%(n=8)

Stated

53%

Realized

38%

Corners — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~25%(n=29)

Stated

25%

Realized

17%

Confidence band ~36%(n=27)

Stated

36%

Realized

30%

Confidence band ~41%(n=7)

Stated

41%

Realized

29%

Confidence band ~57%(n=18)

Stated

57%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~66%(n=16)

Stated

66%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~74%(n=18)

Stated

74%

Realized

50%

Shots on Target — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~26%(n=14)

Stated

26%

Realized

21%

Confidence band ~35%(n=26)

Stated

35%

Realized

42%

Confidence band ~42%(n=7)

Stated

42%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~57%(n=13)

Stated

57%

Realized

77%

Confidence band ~66%(n=16)

Stated

66%

Realized

63%

Confidence band ~74%(n=23)

Stated

74%

Realized

78%

Total Goals — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~38%(n=3)

Stated

38%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~45%(n=10)

Stated

45%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~56%(n=4)

Stated

56%

Realized

50%

Prediction log

Every individually graded prediction — statement, stated probability, outcome, and what actually happened. Most recent first.

Outcome

Prediction	Fixture	Stated	Actual

By market

League	Season	Market	N	Stated	Realized
EPL	2026-27	Match Result	53	34.0%	34.0%
EPL	2026-27	Both Teams to Score	17	55.4%	58.8%
EPL	2026-27	Corners	92	47.2%	44.6%
EPL	2026-27	Shots on Target	80	51.1%	57.5%
EPL	2026-27	Total Goals	18	53.5%	55.6%
MLS	2026	Match Result	320	32.7%	32.8%
MLS	2026	Both Teams to Score	103	59.6%	67.0%
MLS	2026	Corners	539	47.5%	49.2%
MLS	2026	Anytime Goalscorer	213	28.1%	24.4%
MLS	2026	Goalkeeper Saves	150	42.5%	45.3%
MLS	2026	Shots on Target	567	49.1%	57.9%
MLS	2026	Total Goals	100	59.5%	64.0%
SERIE_A	2026-27	Match Result	60	33.3%	33.3%
SERIE_A	2026-27	Both Teams to Score	20	47.4%	35.0%
SERIE_A	2026-27	Corners	115	46.9%	33.0%
SERIE_A	2026-27	Shots on Target	99	51.2%	55.6%
SERIE_A	2026-27	Total Goals	20	47.4%	45.0%
WC	2026	Match Result	3⚠	33.3%	33.3%
WC	2026	Both Teams to Score	1⚠	63.2%	100.0%
WC	2026	Total Goals	1⚠	63.4%	0.0%

⚠ marks a market with fewer than 5 graded predictions -- treat those numbers cautiously.

Calibration

Match Result

Both Teams to Score

Corners

Shots on Target

Total Goals

Anytime Goalscorer

Goalkeeper Saves

Points on the dashed line are perfectly calibrated. Dot size scales with sample size.

Match Result — Away win (EPL)

Confidence band ~27%(n=4)

Stated

27%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~35%(n=6)

Stated

35%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~54%(n=3)

Stated

54%

Realized

67%

Match Result — Draw (EPL)

Confidence band ~26%(n=13)

Stated

26%

Realized

31%

Match Result — Home win (EPL)

Confidence band ~36%(n=6)

Stated

36%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~45%(n=5)

Stated

45%

Realized

60%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (EPL)

Confidence band ~47%(n=3)

Stated

47%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~55%(n=10)

Stated

55%

Realized

70%

Confidence band ~64%(n=4)

Stated

64%

Realized

50%

Corners — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~25%(n=23)

Stated

25%

Realized

26%

Confidence band ~35%(n=21)

Stated

35%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~43%(n=8)

Stated

43%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~57%(n=6)

Stated

57%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~65%(n=22)

Stated

65%

Realized

55%

Confidence band ~74%(n=12)

Stated

74%

Realized

67%

Shots on Target — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~27%(n=14)

Stated

27%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~34%(n=18)

Stated

34%

Realized

28%

Confidence band ~42%(n=7)

Stated

42%

Realized

57%

Confidence band ~58%(n=4)

Stated

58%

Realized

75%

Confidence band ~65%(n=18)

Stated

65%

Realized

83%

Confidence band ~74%(n=19)

Stated

74%

Realized

63%

Total Goals — Over (EPL)

Confidence band ~46%(n=4)

Stated

46%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~54%(n=6)

Stated

54%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~63%(n=6)

Stated

63%

Realized

83%

Match Result — Away win (MLS)

Confidence band ~16%(n=20)

Stated

16%

Realized

30%

Confidence band ~26%(n=34)

Stated

26%

Realized

26%

Confidence band ~34%(n=45)

Stated

34%

Realized

27%

Confidence band ~43%(n=6)

Stated

43%

Realized

Match Result — Draw (MLS)

Confidence band ~17%(n=10)

Stated

17%

Realized

20%

Confidence band ~24%(n=101)

Stated

24%

Realized

31%

Match Result — Home win (MLS)

Confidence band ~25%(n=5)

Stated

25%

Realized

20%

Confidence band ~36%(n=25)

Stated

36%

Realized

40%

Confidence band ~45%(n=35)

Stated

45%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~55%(n=21)

Stated

55%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~63%(n=10)

Stated

63%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~73%(n=4)

Stated

73%

Realized

75%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (MLS)

Confidence band ~49%(n=3)

Stated

49%

Realized

100%

Confidence band ~56%(n=54)

Stated

56%

Realized

65%

Confidence band ~64%(n=39)

Stated

64%

Realized

69%

Confidence band ~71%(n=6)

Stated

71%

Realized

67%

Corners — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~25%(n=126)

Stated

25%

Realized

36%

Confidence band ~35%(n=127)

Stated

35%

Realized

40%

Confidence band ~42%(n=37)

Stated

42%

Realized

41%

Confidence band ~57%(n=69)

Stated

57%

Realized

52%

Confidence band ~64%(n=44)

Stated

64%

Realized

66%

Confidence band ~75%(n=80)

Stated

75%

Realized

75%

Corners — Under (MLS)

Confidence band ~56%(n=3)

Stated

56%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~63%(n=30)

Stated

63%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~74%(n=23)

Stated

74%

Realized

57%

Anytime Goalscorer — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~18%(n=56)

Stated

18%

Realized

30%

Confidence band ~25%(n=66)

Stated

25%

Realized

18%

Confidence band ~35%(n=74)

Stated

35%

Realized

26%

Confidence band ~43%(n=17)

Stated

43%

Realized

24%

Goalkeeper Saves — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~37%(n=48)

Stated

37%

Realized

38%

Confidence band ~43%(n=82)

Stated

43%

Realized

49%

Confidence band ~56%(n=16)

Stated

56%

Realized

50%

Shots on Target — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~25%(n=121)

Stated

25%

Realized

46%

Confidence band ~35%(n=103)

Stated

35%

Realized

46%

Confidence band ~43%(n=56)

Stated

43%

Realized

55%

Confidence band ~58%(n=45)

Stated

58%

Realized

71%

Confidence band ~65%(n=154)

Stated

65%

Realized

67%

Confidence band ~77%(n=38)

Stated

77%

Realized

89%

Shots on Target — Under (MLS)

Confidence band ~57%(n=10)

Stated

57%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~63%(n=20)

Stated

63%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~75%(n=19)

Stated

75%

Realized

47%

Total Goals — Over (MLS)

Confidence band ~48%(n=9)

Stated

48%

Realized

56%

Confidence band ~56%(n=49)

Stated

56%

Realized

63%

Confidence band ~64%(n=31)

Stated

64%

Realized

68%

Confidence band ~73%(n=11)

Stated

73%

Realized

64%

Match Result — Away win (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~15%(n=4)

Stated

15%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~25%(n=4)

Stated

25%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~33%(n=4)

Stated

33%

Realized

75%

Confidence band ~53%(n=4)

Stated

53%

Realized

75%

Match Result — Draw (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~25%(n=16)

Stated

25%

Realized

Match Result — Home win (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~13%(n=3)

Stated

13%

Realized

Confidence band ~23%(n=4)

Stated

23%

Realized

Confidence band ~38%(n=4)

Stated

38%

Realized

25%

Confidence band ~63%(n=4)

Stated

63%

Realized

75%

Both Teams to Score — Yes (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~37%(n=3)

Stated

37%

Realized

Confidence band ~46%(n=9)

Stated

46%

Realized

44%

Confidence band ~53%(n=8)

Stated

53%

Realized

38%

Corners — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~25%(n=29)

Stated

25%

Realized

17%

Confidence band ~36%(n=27)

Stated

36%

Realized

30%

Confidence band ~41%(n=7)

Stated

41%

Realized

29%

Confidence band ~57%(n=18)

Stated

57%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~66%(n=16)

Stated

66%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~74%(n=18)

Stated

74%

Realized

50%

Shots on Target — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~26%(n=14)

Stated

26%

Realized

21%

Confidence band ~35%(n=26)

Stated

35%

Realized

42%

Confidence band ~42%(n=7)

Stated

42%

Realized

43%

Confidence band ~57%(n=13)

Stated

57%

Realized

77%

Confidence band ~66%(n=16)

Stated

66%

Realized

63%

Confidence band ~74%(n=23)

Stated

74%

Realized

78%

Total Goals — Over (SERIE_A)

Confidence band ~38%(n=3)

Stated

38%

Realized

33%

Confidence band ~45%(n=10)

Stated

45%

Realized

50%

Confidence band ~56%(n=4)

Stated

56%

Realized

50%