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EPLfinal

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 1:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Nottingham Forest winLong shotmiss
29.4%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
27.6%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Nottingham Forest — Corners under 6.5miss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.40
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.40
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.61
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Fouls for r5
15.00
xG against (last 5)
1.06
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.00
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

80.0%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Crystal Palace — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
2.40
xG for (last 5)↓
1.39
Rest days
21
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.60
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
10.60
xG against (last 5)
2.09
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.50
Shots against (last 5)
16.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.7%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.40
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.40
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.61
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Fouls for r5
15.00
xG against (last 5)
1.06
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.00
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Crystal Palace — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
2.40
xG for (last 5)↓
1.39
Rest days
21
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.60
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
10.60
xG against (last 5)
2.09
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.50
Shots against (last 5)
16.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Crystal Palace — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
2.40
xG for (last 5)↓
1.39
Rest days
21
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.60
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
10.60
xG against (last 5)
2.09
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.50
Shots against (last 5)
16.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.40
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.40
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.61
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Fouls for r5
15.00
xG against (last 5)
1.06
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.00
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Crystal Palace — Shots on Target under 5.5miss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.60
xG against (last 5)↓
2.09
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
10.60
Corners for (last 5)
2.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.50
Shots against (last 5)
16.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

79.5%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Shots on Target over 2.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.40
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.61
Fouls for r5
15.00
xG against (last 5)
1.06
Corners for (last 5)
3.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.00
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.9%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.40
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.61
Fouls for r5
15.00
xG against (last 5)
1.06
Corners for (last 5)
3.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.00
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Crystal Palace — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.60
xG against (last 5)↓
2.09
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
10.60
Corners for (last 5)
2.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.50
Shots against (last 5)
16.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Crystal Palace — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.60
xG against (last 5)↓
2.09
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
10.60
Corners for (last 5)
2.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.50
Shots against (last 5)
16.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Crystal Palace — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Yellows for r5↓
1.50
Reds for r5↑
1.00
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.60
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
10.60
xG against (last 5)
2.09
Corners for (last 5)
2.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Shots against (last 5)
16.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80
Referee avg cards r10
4.16

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days↓
21
Yellows for r5↑
2.60
xG for (last 5)
1.61
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Fouls for r5
15.00
Shots for (last 5)
16.40
xG against (last 5)
1.06
Corners for (last 5)
3.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.60
Referee avg cards r10
4.16

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days↓
21
Yellows for r5↑
2.60
xG for (last 5)
1.61
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Fouls for r5
15.00
Shots for (last 5)
16.40
xG against (last 5)
1.06
Corners for (last 5)
3.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.60
Referee avg cards r10
4.16

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Liam Delap to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.40
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.50
Player minutes (last 5)
76.60
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Dan Ndoye to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.67
Player minutes (last 5)↑
64.20
Player goals (last 10)↓
0.10
Player key passes (last 5)
1.25
Absence rate r10
0.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

17.7%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Anan Khalaili to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player key passes (last 5)↓
0.75
Player minutes (last 5)
76.00
Absence rate r10
0.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

16.5%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Walter Benítez over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
16.80
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player saves (last 5)↑
2.50
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

44.6%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Matz Sels over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
10.40
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.20
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.60
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

37.1%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'3' Goal (Nottingham Forest) — Dan Ndoye41' Goal (Crystal Palace) — Daichi Kamada45+4' Goal (Crystal Palace) — Jefferson Lerma45+4' Goal (Crystal Palace) — Anan Khalaili59' Goal (Crystal Palace) — Yéremy Pino
Crystal Palace 100%
Draw 0%
Nottingham Forest 0%

At 90' (3-1): home 100%, draw 0%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (3)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 45 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 45 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Crystal Palace winPermalink

    Slated 45 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.