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EPLfinal

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest

Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
25.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Nottingham Forest winLong shotmiss
25.0%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Nottingham Forest — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.13
Shots for (last 5)↑
20.20
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Fouls for r5
12.60
xG against (last 5)
1.23
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
9.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

76.8%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Brentford — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.20
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.80
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.60
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
xG against (last 5)
1.75
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.9%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Brentford — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.20
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.80
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.60
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
xG against (last 5)
1.75
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Corners over 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.13
Shots for (last 5)↑
20.20
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Fouls for r5
12.60
xG against (last 5)
1.23
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
9.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Brentford — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.20
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.80
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.60
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
xG against (last 5)
1.75
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.13
Shots for (last 5)↑
20.20
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Fouls for r5
12.60
xG against (last 5)
1.23
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
9.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Brentford — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.60
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.80
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
xG against (last 5)
1.75
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.13
Shots for (last 5)↑
20.20
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Fouls for r5
12.60
xG against (last 5)
1.23
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
9.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Brentford — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.60
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.80
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
xG against (last 5)
1.75
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.13
Shots for (last 5)↑
20.20
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Fouls for r5
12.60
xG against (last 5)
1.23
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
9.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Nottingham Forest — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.20
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
2.13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
20.20
xG against (last 5)
1.23
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Shots against (last 5)
9.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Brentford — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.60
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.60
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.75
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Cards under 2.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.20
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
2.13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
20.20
xG against (last 5)
1.23
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Shots against (last 5)
9.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Brentford — Cards over 1.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.60
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.60
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.75
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Kevin Schade to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.33
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player key passes (last 5)↑
0.00
Player minutes (last 5)
67.80
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

24.1%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Liam Delap to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.00
Player minutes (last 5)
86.00
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

22.2%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Dan Ndoye to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.40
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.00
Player minutes (last 5)
69.60
Absence rate r10
1.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

20.8%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Caoimhin Kelleher over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
17.00
Corners against (last 5)↓
6.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player saves (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

44.4%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Matz Sels over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
9.20
Player saves (last 5)↑
2.60
Corners against (last 5)↓
3.80
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

33.7%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'76' Goal (Brentford) — Thiago
Brentford 100%
Draw 0%
Nottingham Forest 0%

At 90' (2-0): home 100%, draw 0%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (9)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Brentford — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Nottingham Forest — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Nottingham Forest — Corners under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Nottingham Forest — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Brentford — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Nottingham Forest — Corners under 3.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Brentford winPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.