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EPLfinal

Newcastle vs Everton

Monday, November 2, 2026 at 8:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
25.5%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Everton winLong shothit
23.7%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoremiss
56.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Everton — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.37
xG against (last 5)↓
1.54
Rest days
9
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
7.80
Shots for (last 5)
12.40
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Newcastle — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.39
Shots against (last 5)↓
15.40
Rest days
8
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
xG against (last 5)
1.91
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

72.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Newcastle — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.39
Shots against (last 5)↓
15.40
Rest days
8
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
xG against (last 5)
1.91
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Everton — Corners under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.37
xG against (last 5)↓
1.54
Rest days
9
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
7.80
Shots for (last 5)
12.40
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Newcastle — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.39
Shots against (last 5)↓
15.40
Rest days
8
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
xG against (last 5)
1.91
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Newcastle — Shots on Target over 2.5miss
Why
xG against (last 5)↓
1.91
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.80
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
15.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.0%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Newcastle — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG against (last 5)↓
1.91
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.80
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
15.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

72.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Everton — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
12.40
Shots against (last 5)↓
14.80
Rest days
9
xG for (last 5)
1.37
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
7.80
xG against (last 5)
1.54
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Everton — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
12.40
Shots against (last 5)↓
14.80
Rest days
9
xG for (last 5)
1.37
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
7.80
xG against (last 5)
1.54
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Newcastle — Shots on Target over 3.5miss
Why
xG against (last 5)↓
1.91
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.80
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
15.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Newcastle — Shots on Target under 4.5hit
Why
xG against (last 5)↓
1.91
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.80
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
15.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Everton — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Fouls for r5↑
7.80
Rest days
9
xG for (last 5)
1.37
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Shots for (last 5)
12.40
xG against (last 5)
1.54
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

72.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Newcastle — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.60
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
xG against (last 5)
1.91
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Shots against (last 5)
15.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Newcastle — Cards over 1.5hit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.60
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
xG against (last 5)
1.91
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Shots against (last 5)
15.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Everton — Cards under 2.5hit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Fouls for r5↑
7.80
Rest days
9
xG for (last 5)
1.37
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Shots for (last 5)
12.40
xG against (last 5)
1.54
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

57.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Thierno Barry to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.60
Player minutes (last 5)↓
89.20
Player key passes (last 5)
0.60
Absence rate r10
0.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.5%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Yoane Wissa to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.75
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
87.60
Player key passes (last 5)
0.40
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

22.4%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Jordan Pickford over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
14.80
Corners against (last 5)↑
7.00
Player saves (last 5)↑
2.80
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

48.4%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
Lukáš Horníček over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.40
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.20
Player saves (last 5)↑
2.80
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

43.5%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'49' Goal (Everton) — T. Barry90+8' Red card (Newcastle) — J. Ramsey
Newcastle 0%
Draw 4%
Everton 96%

At 90' (0-1): home 0%, draw 4%, away 96%.

Voided predictions (4)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Everton — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Newcastle — Corners under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Newcastle winPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.