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EPLfinal

Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest

Friday, October 23, 2026 at 7:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Ipswich Town winLong shotmiss
28.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shothit
25.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoreBold pickhit
60.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Nottingham Forest — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
19.20
Rest days↓
5
xG for (last 5)
1.82
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.80
xG against (last 5)
1.36
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

78.0%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Ipswich Town — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.20
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.60
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.51
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
11.60
xG against (last 5)
2.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
19.20
Rest days↓
5
xG for (last 5)
1.82
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.80
xG against (last 5)
1.36
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Ipswich Town — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.20
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.60
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.51
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
11.60
xG against (last 5)
2.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Ipswich Town — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.20
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.60
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.51
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
11.60
xG against (last 5)
2.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
19.20
Rest days↓
5
xG for (last 5)
1.82
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.80
xG against (last 5)
1.36
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Nottingham Forest — Shots on Target over 2.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
19.20
xG for (last 5)↑
1.82
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.80
xG against (last 5)
1.36
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.3%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Ipswich Town — Shots on Target over 2.5hit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.60
xG against (last 5)↓
2.00
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.51
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
11.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.60
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.7%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Ipswich Town — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.60
xG against (last 5)↓
2.00
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.51
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
11.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.60
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
19.20
xG for (last 5)↑
1.82
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.80
xG against (last 5)
1.36
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Shots on Target over 3.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
19.20
xG for (last 5)↑
1.82
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.80
xG against (last 5)
1.36
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Ipswich Town — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Fouls for r5↓
11.60
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.51
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.50
Shots for (last 5)
11.60
xG against (last 5)
2.00
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

71.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Cards over 1.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Fouls for r5↑
14.80
Rest days
5
xG for (last 5)
1.82
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Shots for (last 5)
19.20
xG against (last 5)
1.36
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Nottingham Forest — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Fouls for r5↑
14.80
Rest days
5
xG for (last 5)
1.82
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Shots for (last 5)
19.20
xG against (last 5)
1.36
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

L. Delap to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.40
Player minutes (last 5)
83.00
Absence rate r10
0.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

26.1%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
D. Ndoye to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.75
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player key passes (last 5)↓
0.80
Player minutes (last 5)
67.60
Absence rate r10
0.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

22.2%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

M. Sels over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Corners against (last 5)↑
5.80
Shots against (last 5)↑
10.00
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.20
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

41.2%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Christian Walton over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
14.80
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.60
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

40.3%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'13' Goal (Nottingham Forest) — N. Williams41' Goal (Ipswich Town) — J. Enciso
Ipswich Town 7%
Draw 84%
Nottingham Forest 9%

At 90' (1-1): home 7%, draw 84%, away 9%.

Voided predictions (6)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Nottingham Forest — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Nottingham Forest — Corners under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Ipswich Town — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Nottingham Forest — Shots on Target under 3.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Nottingham Forest winPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.