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LA_LIGAfinal

Valencia vs Athletic Club

Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 7:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Athletic Club winLong shotmiss
37.2%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Valencia winLong shotmiss
34.5%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shothit
28.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsLong shotmiss
41.9%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Athletic Club — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.87
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.20
Rest days
28
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Fouls for r5
11.20
xG against (last 5)
1.53
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

79.0%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Valencia — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.06
Shots against (last 5)↓
18.80
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
2.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
9.60
xG against (last 5)
2.22
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Yellows for r5
2.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

76.7%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Athletic Club — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.87
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.20
Rest days
28
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Fouls for r5
11.20
xG against (last 5)
1.53
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Valencia — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.06
Shots against (last 5)↓
18.80
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
2.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
9.60
xG against (last 5)
2.22
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Yellows for r5
2.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Valencia — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.06
Shots against (last 5)↓
18.80
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
2.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
9.60
xG against (last 5)
2.22
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Yellows for r5
2.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.2%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Athletic Club — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.87
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.20
Rest days
28
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Fouls for r5
11.20
xG against (last 5)
1.53
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Athletic Club — Shots on Target over 2.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.87
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.20
Rest days
28
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Fouls for r5
11.20
xG against (last 5)
1.53
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

78.3%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Valencia — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.06
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
2.40
Rest days
6
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
9.60
xG against (last 5)
2.22
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
18.80
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Valencia — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.06
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
2.40
Rest days
6
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
9.60
xG against (last 5)
2.22
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
18.80
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Athletic Club — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.87
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.20
Rest days
28
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Fouls for r5
11.20
xG against (last 5)
1.53
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Athletic Club — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.87
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.20
Rest days
28
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Fouls for r5
11.20
xG against (last 5)
1.53
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Valencia — Shots on Target under 4.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.06
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
2.40
Rest days
6
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
9.60
xG against (last 5)
2.22
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
18.80
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Javier Guerra to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.00
Player minutes (last 5)
82.00
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.1%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Oihan Sancet to scoreLong shot
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.40
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
85.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.50
Absence rate r10
1.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

22.0%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Iñaki Williams to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.00
Player minutes (last 5)
66.80
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

17.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Stole Dimitrievski over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
18.80
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.00
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.60
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

40.8%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Unai Simón over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.20
Player saves (last 5)↑
3.75
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

38.3%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'
Valencia 6%
Draw 87%
Athletic Club 7%

At 90' (0-0): home 6%, draw 87%, away 7%.

Voided predictions (5)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Valencia — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 25 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Athletic Club — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 25 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Athletic Club — Corners under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 25 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 25 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Nico Williams to scorePermalink

    Slated 25 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.