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LA_LIGAfinal

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid

Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Atletico Madrid winhit
49.9%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
Espanyol winLong shotmiss
25.5%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
24.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoremiss
55.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsmiss
53.0%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

Corners

Espanyol — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
2.80
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.40
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
17.00
xG against (last 5)
1.21
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
11.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.0%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Atletico Madrid — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.56
Shots for (last 5)↑
19.00
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.00
xG against (last 5)
0.80
Corners for (last 5)
6.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
7.60
Corners against (last 5)
2.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Espanyol — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
2.80
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.40
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
17.00
xG against (last 5)
1.21
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
11.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Atletico Madrid — Corners under 6.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.56
Shots for (last 5)↑
19.00
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.00
xG against (last 5)
0.80
Corners for (last 5)
6.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
7.60
Corners against (last 5)
2.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Espanyol — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
2.80
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.40
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
17.00
xG against (last 5)
1.21
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
11.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Atletico Madrid — Corners over 4.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.56
Shots for (last 5)↑
19.00
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.00
xG against (last 5)
0.80
Corners for (last 5)
6.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
7.60
Corners against (last 5)
2.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Atletico Madrid — Shots on Target over 3.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.56
Shots for (last 5)↑
19.00
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.00
xG against (last 5)
0.80
Corners for (last 5)
6.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
7.60
Corners against (last 5)
2.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.7%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Espanyol — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
xG against (last 5)↑
1.21
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.40
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
17.00
Corners for (last 5)
2.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
11.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Espanyol — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
xG against (last 5)↑
1.21
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.40
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
17.00
Corners for (last 5)
2.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
11.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Atletico Madrid — Shots on Target over 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.56
Shots for (last 5)↑
19.00
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.00
xG against (last 5)
0.80
Corners for (last 5)
6.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
7.60
Corners against (last 5)
2.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Roberto Fernández to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.70
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.20
Player key passes (last 5)↑
0.33
Player minutes (last 5)
86.40
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

35.5%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Alex Baena to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
1.80
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.75
Player minutes (last 5)
67.40
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

24.7%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Jonathan David to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)↑
52.40
Player key passes (last 5)
1.60
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

24.0%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Jan Oblak over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
7.60
Player saves (last 5)↓
1.80
Corners against (last 5)↓
2.60
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

27.0%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'
Espanyol 26%
Draw 26%
Atletico Madrid 49%

At 10' (0-0): home 26%, draw 26%, away 49%.

Voided predictions (8)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Atletico Madrid — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 24 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Atletico Madrid — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 24 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Atletico Madrid — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 24 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Atletico Madrid — Corners under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 24 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Espanyol — Shots on Target over 4.5Permalink

    Slated 24 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • M. Dmitrović over 3.5 savesPermalink

    Slated 24 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Lee Kang-In to scorePermalink

    Slated 24 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Edu Expósito to scorePermalink

    Slated 24 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.