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LA_LIGAfinal

Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Real Madrid winBold pickhit
65.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
18.0%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Villarreal winLong shotmiss
16.9%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoreBold pickmiss
64.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsBold pickmiss
71.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Villarreal — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.67
Corners for (last 5)↑
7.60
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
17.40
xG against (last 5)
1.37
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Real Madrid — Corners over 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.79
Corners for (last 5)↑
7.20
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.80
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
8.40
Shots for (last 5)
18.20
xG against (last 5)
1.33
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
14.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Villarreal — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.67
Corners for (last 5)↑
7.60
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
17.40
xG against (last 5)
1.37
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Villarreal — Corners over 4.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.67
Corners for (last 5)↑
7.60
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
17.40
xG against (last 5)
1.37
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Real Madrid — Corners over 5.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.79
Corners for (last 5)↑
7.20
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.80
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
8.40
Shots for (last 5)
18.20
xG against (last 5)
1.33
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
14.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

56.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Real Madrid — Shots on Target over 3.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
18.20
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
6.80
Rest days
20
xG for (last 5)
2.79
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
8.40
xG against (last 5)
1.33
Corners for (last 5)
7.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
14.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.6%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Villarreal — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.67
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
6.60
Rest days
20
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
17.40
xG against (last 5)
1.37
Corners for (last 5)
7.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Villarreal — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.67
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
6.60
Rest days
20
Fouls for r5
9.60
Shots for (last 5)
17.40
xG against (last 5)
1.37
Corners for (last 5)
7.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Real Madrid — Shots on Target over 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
18.20
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
6.80
Rest days
20
xG for (last 5)
2.79
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
8.40
xG against (last 5)
1.33
Corners for (last 5)
7.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
14.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Georges Mikautadze to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.50
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.75
Player minutes (last 5)↓
86.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.60
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

34.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Ayoze Pérez to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.25
Player minutes (last 5)↑
61.80
Player key passes (last 5)
1.20
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.6%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Thibaut Courtois over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
14.20
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.40
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player saves (last 5)
3.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

41.8%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Péter Gulácsi over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
10.80
Corners against (last 5)↓
3.00
Player saves (last 5)↓
3.33
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

35.9%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'62' Goal (Real Madrid) — Y. Diomande71' Goal (Real Madrid) — Vinícius Júnior72' Red card (Real Madrid) — Vinícius Júnior73' Red card (Real Madrid) — Vinícius Júnior
Real Madrid 91%
Draw 9%
Villarreal 0%

At 90' (1-0): home 91%, draw 9%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (6)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Villarreal — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 18 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Real Madrid — Corners over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 18 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Real Madrid — Corners under 6.5Permalink

    Slated 18 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Villarreal — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 18 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Real Madrid — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 18 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Alberto Moleiro to scorePermalink

    Slated 18 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.