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LA_LIGAfinal

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 2:15 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Alaves winLong shotmiss
29.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
26.0%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Alaves — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.13
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Rest days
21
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.62
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
14.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.7%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Atletico Madrid — Corners under 6.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.29
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.00
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
xG against (last 5)
0.74
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
3.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.4%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Atletico Madrid — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.29
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.00
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
xG against (last 5)
0.74
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
3.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Alaves — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.13
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Rest days
21
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.62
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
14.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Atletico Madrid — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.29
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.00
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
xG against (last 5)
0.74
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
3.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Alaves — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.13
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Rest days
21
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.62
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
14.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Alaves — Shots on Target over 2.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.13
Shots against (last 5)↓
14.20
Rest days
21
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.62
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.9%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Alaves — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.13
Shots against (last 5)↓
14.20
Rest days
21
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.62
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Atletico Madrid — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.29
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
7.00
Rest days
20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
17.00
xG against (last 5)
0.74
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
3.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Atletico Madrid — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.29
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
7.00
Rest days
20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
17.00
xG against (last 5)
0.74
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
3.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Alaves — Shots on Target under 4.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.13
Shots against (last 5)↓
14.20
Rest days
21
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.62
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.2%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Alaves — Shots on Target over 3.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.13
Shots against (last 5)↓
14.20
Rest days
21
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.62
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.2%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Toni Martínez to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.50
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)
78.20
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

33.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
L. Boyé to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.50
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.50
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.00
Player minutes (last 5)
84.40
Absence rate r10
0.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

30.0%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Alex Baena to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.40
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.50
Player minutes (last 5)
75.40
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

27.6%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Kang-in Lee to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.25
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.40
Player minutes (last 5)
74.00
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

21.2%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Sivera over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
14.20
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.80
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player saves (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

41.8%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Jan Oblak over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.20
Corners against (last 5)↑
3.40
Shots against (last 5)↑
10.00
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

39.7%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'33' Goal (Atletico Madrid) — Álex Grimaldo45+6' Goal (Alaves) — L. Boyé61' Red card (Alaves) — Angel Pérez87' Goal (Atletico Madrid) — C. Romero
Alaves 0%
Draw 3%
Atletico Madrid 97%

At 90' (1-2): home 0%, draw 3%, away 97%.

Voided predictions (4)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Atletico Madrid — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 18 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Atletico Madrid — Corners under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 18 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Atletico Madrid winPermalink

    Slated 18 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 18 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.