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LA_LIGAfinal

Malaga vs Espanyol

Friday, October 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Espanyol winLong shotmiss
42.2%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shothit
30.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Malaga winLong shotmiss
27.6%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoreLong shothit
40.5%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsLong shotmiss
33.6%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Malaga — Corners under 6.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.83
Corners for (last 5)↑
6.00
Rest days
19
Shots on target for (last 5)
2.20
Fouls for r5
13.40
Shots for (last 5)
10.40
xG against (last 5)
2.13
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.00
Yellows for r5
2.80
Shots against (last 5)
16.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Espanyol — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.00
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.20
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.32
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.60
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
16.80
xG against (last 5)
1.45
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Malaga — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.83
Corners for (last 5)↑
6.00
Rest days
19
Shots on target for (last 5)
2.20
Fouls for r5
13.40
Shots for (last 5)
10.40
xG against (last 5)
2.13
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.00
Yellows for r5
2.80
Shots against (last 5)
16.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Malaga — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.83
Corners for (last 5)↑
6.00
Rest days
19
Shots on target for (last 5)
2.20
Fouls for r5
13.40
Shots for (last 5)
10.40
xG against (last 5)
2.13
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.00
Yellows for r5
2.80
Shots against (last 5)
16.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Espanyol — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.00
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.20
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.32
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.60
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
16.80
xG against (last 5)
1.45
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Espanyol — Corners over 3.5miss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.00
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.20
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.32
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.60
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
16.80
xG against (last 5)
1.45
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Espanyol — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.60
Shots against (last 5)↑
11.80
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.32
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
16.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.20
xG against (last 5)
1.45
Corners for (last 5)
3.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Malaga — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.83
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
2.20
Rest days
19
Fouls for r5
13.40
Shots for (last 5)
10.40
xG against (last 5)
2.13
Corners for (last 5)
6.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.00
Yellows for r5
2.80
Shots against (last 5)
16.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Espanyol — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.60
Shots against (last 5)↑
11.80
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.32
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
16.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.20
xG against (last 5)
1.45
Corners for (last 5)
3.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Malaga — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.83
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
2.20
Rest days
19
Fouls for r5
13.40
Shots for (last 5)
10.40
xG against (last 5)
2.13
Corners for (last 5)
6.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.00
Yellows for r5
2.80
Shots against (last 5)
16.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Roberto Fernández to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.70
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
86.60
Player key passes (last 5)
0.50
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

32.4%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Chupete to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.20
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.17
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.00
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

16.3%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Alfonso Herrero over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
16.60
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.40
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.00
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

44.1%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Marko Dmitrović over 3.5 savesLong shot
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
11.80
Player saves (last 5)↑
4.00
Corners against (last 5)↑
4.00
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

39.7%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'13' Goal (Espanyol) — Bryan Zaragoza90+3' Goal (Malaga) — Adrián Niño Heredia
Malaga 5%
Draw 88%
Espanyol 7%

At 90' (1-1): home 5%, draw 88%, away 7%.

Voided predictions (4)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Espanyol — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 17 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Malaga — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 17 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Malaga — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 17 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Edu Expósito to scorePermalink

    Slated 17 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.