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MLSfinal

New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC

Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Los Angeles FC winLong shotmiss
36.3%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
New York City FC winLong shotmiss
35.6%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shothit
28.1%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Los Angeles FC — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.00
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.60
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
10.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
15.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

79.0%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
New York City FC — Corners under 6.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.40
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
1.00
Shots against (last 5)
12.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
New York City FC — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.40
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
1.00
Shots against (last 5)
12.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Los Angeles FC — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.00
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.60
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
10.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
15.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Los Angeles FC — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.00
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.60
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
10.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
15.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
New York City FC — Corners under 5.5miss
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.40
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
1.00
Shots against (last 5)
12.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

D. Bouanga to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.70
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
89.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.25
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

39.4%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Luighi Hanri to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.38
Player minutes (last 5)↑
66.00
Player shots (last 5)↑
1.20
Player key passes (last 5)
0.00
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

18.8%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Talles Magno to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.67
Player minutes (last 5)↑
55.80
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.00
Player goals (last 10)
0.10
Absence rate r10
0.70

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

17.9%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

H. Lloris over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.60
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.20
Player minutes (last 5)↑
92.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

44.4%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
M. Freese over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
12.00
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.60
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.00
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

36.2%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'45+1' Goal (Los Angeles FC) — L. Walta59' Goal (New York City FC) — A. Perea
New York City FC 7%
Draw 86%
Los Angeles FC 7%

At 90' (1-1): home 7%, draw 86%, away 7%.

Voided predictions (11)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Los Angeles FC — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • New York City FC — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • Los Angeles FC — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • New York City FC — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • New York City FC — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Los Angeles FC — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • New York City FC — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • Los Angeles FC — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Los Angeles FC — Corners under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • T. Romero over 3.5 savesPermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.