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MLSfinal

St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers

Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 12:30 AM (your local time)

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Match Result

St. Louis City winmiss
51.5%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
Portland Timbers winLong shothit
26.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
22.1%
roughly 1 in 5
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Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoreBold pickhit
66.5%
roughly 7 in 10
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Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsBold pickhit
67.3%
roughly 7 in 10
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Corners

Portland Timbers — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.60
Shots for (last 5)
15.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
9.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
St. Louis City — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
0.25
Fouls for r5
14.00
Shots for (last 5)
10.40
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.20
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
18.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
St. Louis City — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
0.25
Fouls for r5
14.00
Shots for (last 5)
10.40
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.20
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
18.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Portland Timbers — Corners under 4.5hit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.60
Shots for (last 5)
15.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
9.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
St. Louis City — Corners under 5.5hit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
0.25
Fouls for r5
14.00
Shots for (last 5)
10.40
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.20
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
18.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

57.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Portland Timbers — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.60
Shots for (last 5)
15.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
9.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

56.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Carlo Holse to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.86
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)
77.80
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

42.5%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Kevin Kelsy to scoreLong shot
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.70
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.80
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.00
Player minutes (last 5)
84.80
Absence rate r10
1.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

37.0%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
S. Becher to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.20
Player key passes (last 5)↓
0.25
Player minutes (last 5)
68.20
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

32.5%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Kristoffer Velde to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
4.50
Player minutes (last 5)↓
89.40
Player key passes (last 5)
1.40
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

28.6%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

B. Lundt over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
18.40
Corners against (last 5)↓
6.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player saves (last 5)
2.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

47.5%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
James Pantemis over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Player saves (last 5)↑
2.40
Shots against (last 5)↓
9.80
Corners against (last 5)↑
4.00
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

40.1%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'42' Goal (Portland Timbers)42' Goal (Portland Timbers) — K. Velde45+3' Goal (Portland Timbers) — David Pereira da Costa48' Goal (Portland Timbers) — K. Velde58' Goal (St. Louis City) — D. Edelman70' Goal (Portland Timbers) — K. Velde90+1' Goal (St. Louis City) — Jeong Sang-Bin90+2' Goal (St. Louis City) — Jeong Sang-Bin90+6' Red card (Portland Timbers) — K. Miller
St. Louis City 2%
Draw 16%
Portland Timbers 83%

At 90' (2-3): home 2%, draw 16%, away 83%.