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MLSfinal

New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 11:30 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

New York City FC winhit
55.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
24.6%
roughly 1 in 5
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Atlanta United FC winLong shotmiss
20.1%
roughly 1 in 5
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Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scorehit
51.2%
roughly 1 in 2
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Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalshit
50.5%
roughly 1 in 2
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Corners

New York City FC — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
6.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
1.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.6%
roughly 7 in 10
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Atlanta United FC — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.00
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
New York City FC — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
6.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
1.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
New York City FC — Corners over 4.5miss
Why
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
6.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
1.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Atlanta United FC — Corners under 4.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.00
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.5%
roughly 3 in 5
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Atlanta United FC — Corners over 3.5miss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.00
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

56.1%
roughly 3 in 5
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Anytime Goalscorer

Alonso Martínez to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player key passes (last 5)↓
0.40
Player minutes (last 5)
68.20
Absence rate r10
0.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

35.5%
roughly 2 in 5
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Luighi Hanri to scoreLong shot
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.33
Player minutes (last 5)↑
61.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
1.20
Player key passes (last 5)
0.00
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

20.6%
roughly 1 in 5
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Talles Magno to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.25
Player goals (last 10)↓
0.00
Player minutes (last 5)↑
58.40
Player key passes (last 5)
0.67
Absence rate r10
0.70

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

15.2%
roughly 1 in 5
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Goalkeeper Saves

Lucas Hoyos over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Player saves (last 5)↓
1.40
Player minutes (last 5)↑
91.20
Corners against (last 5)↑
4.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

35.6%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Tomás Romero over 3.5 savesLong shot
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
10.80
Player minutes (last 5)↓
85.60
Corners against (last 5)↓
3.60
Player saves (last 5)
2.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

34.0%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'21' Goal (Atlanta United FC) — B. Embolo70' Goal (New York City FC) — N. Fernández Mercau88' Goal (Atlanta United FC) — B. Embolo90+5' Goal (New York City FC) — B. Traoré
New York City FC 95%
Draw 5%
Atlanta United FC 0%

At 90' (2-1): home 95%, draw 5%, away 0%.