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MLSfinal

Toronto FC vs DC United

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 11:30 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Toronto FC winhit
50.8%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
24.7%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
DC United winLong shotmiss
24.5%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scorehit
56.3%
roughly 3 in 5
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Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalshit
54.6%
roughly 1 in 2
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Corners

DC United — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
2.80
Reds for r5
0.25
Fouls for r5
11.80
Shots for (last 5)
12.20
Corners for (last 5)
6.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Toronto FC — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Toronto FC — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
DC United — Corners under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
2.80
Reds for r5
0.25
Fouls for r5
11.80
Shots for (last 5)
12.20
Corners for (last 5)
6.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Toronto FC — Corners over 4.5hit
Why
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
DC United — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
2.80
Reds for r5
0.25
Fouls for r5
11.80
Shots for (last 5)
12.20
Corners for (last 5)
6.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

55.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

T. Baribo to scoreLong shot
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.50
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.60
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player key passes (last 5)
0.20
Absence rate r10
0.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

31.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Josh Sargent to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.50
Player minutes (last 5)↓
89.20
Player key passes (last 5)
1.00
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.6%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Dániel Sallói to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
84.60
Player key passes (last 5)
1.40
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

20.7%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
K. Nono to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.20
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

18.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Louis Munteanu to scoreLong shot
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.25
Absence rate r10↓
1.00
Player minutes (last 5)↑
81.40
Player goals (last 10)
0.10
Player key passes (last 5)
1.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

18.5%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Luka Gavran over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.60
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.20
Corners against (last 5)↑
6.20
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

44.7%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
S. Johnson over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.60
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.00
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.20
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

43.9%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'29' Goal (DC United) — A. Dozzell64' Goal (Toronto FC) — J. Sargent64' Goal (Toronto FC) — J. Osorio86' Goal (Toronto FC) — J. Sargent
Toronto FC 94%
Draw 6%
DC United 0%

At 90' (2-1): home 94%, draw 6%, away 0%.