FixturesStandingsTrack Record

Data from FBref, Understat, and API-Football. Source on GitHub · API docs · RSS

← Back to fixtures
MLSfinal

Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal

Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 2:30 AM (your local time)

Ask Petey

Match Result

Seattle Sounders winBold pickmiss
62.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shothit
22.5%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
CF Montreal winLong shotmiss
15.5%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scorehit
48.2%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

Corners

Seattle Sounders — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↑
7.80
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
15.20
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

78.4%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
CF Montreal — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.40
Shots for (last 5)
12.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
16.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Seattle Sounders — Corners over 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↑
7.80
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
15.20
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
CF Montreal — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.40
Shots for (last 5)
12.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
16.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.2%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Seattle Sounders — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↑
7.80
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
15.20
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Prince Owusu to scoreLong shot
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.60
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)
84.80
Absence rate r10
1.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

37.6%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
D. Joveljić to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.40
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.00
Player minutes (last 5)
85.80
Absence rate r10
0.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

29.7%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
J. Morris to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.25
Player goals (last 10)↓
0.10
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)
72.40
Absence rate r10
0.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

17.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

S. Breza over 3.5 saveshit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
16.00
Player minutes (last 5)↑
93.00
Player saves (last 5)↑
3.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

48.9%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
A. Thomas over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.20
Corners against (last 5)↑
6.80
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player saves (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

45.8%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'13' Goal (CF Montreal) — H. Synchuk66' Goal (Seattle Sounders) — S. Gomez
Seattle Sounders 10%
Draw 85%
CF Montreal 4%

At 90' (1-1): home 10%, draw 85%, away 4%.

Voided predictions (10)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Seattle Sounders — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • CF Montreal — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Seattle Sounders — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • CF Montreal — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • CF Montreal — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Seattle Sounders — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Seattle Sounders — Shots on Target over 4.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • CF Montreal — Shots on Target under 3.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • Seattle Sounders — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.