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MLSfinal

Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:30 AM (your local time)

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Match Result

Austin winLong shotmiss
26.1%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
25.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scorehit
55.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalshit
53.3%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

Corners

Vancouver Whitecaps — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
11.60
Shots for (last 5)
15.40
Corners for (last 5)
6.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

79.0%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Austin — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.25
Fouls for r5
8.80
Shots for (last 5)
10.00
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.40
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
20.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Austin — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.25
Fouls for r5
8.80
Shots for (last 5)
10.00
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.40
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
20.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Vancouver Whitecaps — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
11.60
Shots for (last 5)
15.40
Corners for (last 5)
6.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Vancouver Whitecaps — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
11.60
Shots for (last 5)
15.40
Corners for (last 5)
6.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Austin — Corners under 5.5hit
Why
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.25
Fouls for r5
8.80
Shots for (last 5)
10.00
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.40
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
20.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Thomas Müller to scoreLong shot
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.50
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.67
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.60
Player minutes (last 5)
81.00
Absence rate r10
1.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

35.0%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
B. Vázquez to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.60
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player key passes (last 5)↑
0.00
Player minutes (last 5)
83.60
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

27.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
C. Ramirez to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
1.50
Absence rate r10↑
0.80
Player minutes (last 5)
71.60
Player key passes (last 5)
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

21.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
R. Gauld to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.25
Player key passes (last 5)↑
3.40
Player minutes (last 5)↓
86.40
Player goals (last 10)
0.10
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

21.0%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

B. Stuver over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
20.00
Player saves (last 5)↑
5.60
Corners against (last 5)↑
5.60
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

55.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Y. Takaoka over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
14.80
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.40
Player saves (last 5)↑
3.40
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

43.8%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'40' Goal (Austin) — M. Uzuni47' Goal (Vancouver Whitecaps) — R. Gauld71' Goal (Vancouver Whitecaps) — Y. Diaby
Austin 0%
Draw 6%
Vancouver Whitecaps 94%

At 90' (1-2): home 0%, draw 6%, away 94%.

Voided predictions (9)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Austin — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Vancouver Whitecaps — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • Vancouver Whitecaps — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Austin — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Vancouver Whitecaps — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • Vancouver Whitecaps — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Austin — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Vancouver Whitecaps — Corners under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Vancouver Whitecaps winPermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.