FixturesStandingsTrack Record

Data from FBref, Understat, and API-Football. Source on GitHub · API docs · RSS

← Back to fixtures
MLSfinal

Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas

Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:30 AM (your local time)

Ask Petey

Match Result

Houston Dynamo winLong shotmiss
42.7%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
FC Dallas winLong shotmiss
30.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shothit
26.5%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scorehit
54.9%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalshit
50.7%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

Corners

FC Dallas — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
12.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
14.20
Corners against (last 5)
7.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Houston Dynamo — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
8.00
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Houston Dynamo — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
8.00
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
FC Dallas — Corners under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
12.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
14.20
Corners against (last 5)
7.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Houston Dynamo — Corners under 5.5hit
Why
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
8.00
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

57.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Houston Dynamo — Corners over 4.5hit
Why
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
8.00
Shots for (last 5)
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

56.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

P. Musa to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.40
Player key passes (last 5)↓
0.67
Player minutes (last 5)
78.00
Absence rate r10
0.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

36.1%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
M. Bogusz to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
88.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.50
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

24.1%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Daniel over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
14.20
Corners against (last 5)↑
7.60
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player saves (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

45.9%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
J. Bond over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.60
Player minutes (last 5)↓
87.00
Player saves (last 5)↑
2.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

42.7%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'12' Goal (FC Dallas)12' Goal (FC Dallas) — C. Cappis28' Goal (FC Dallas) — P. Musa49' Goal (Houston Dynamo) — H. Herrera67' Goal (FC Dallas) — H. Johansson90+4' Goal (Houston Dynamo) — M. Bogusz
Houston Dynamo 93%
Draw 6%
FC Dallas 0%

At 90' (2-1): home 93%, draw 6%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (10)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Houston Dynamo — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • FC Dallas — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • FC Dallas — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Houston Dynamo — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • FC Dallas — Shots on Target under 3.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • FC Dallas — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Houston Dynamo — Shots on Target over 4.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Houston Dynamo — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • FC Dallas — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • J. Sirois over 3.5 savesPermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.