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MLSfinal

New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire

Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Chicago Fire winLong shotmiss
31.5%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
24.0%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoreBold pickmiss
63.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsBold pickmiss
61.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Corners

New England Revolution — Corners over 3.5miss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↑
6.80
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.60
Shots for (last 5)
12.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

78.4%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Chicago Fire — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.40
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.67
Fouls for r5
12.40
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
14.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
New England Revolution — Corners over 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↑
6.80
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.60
Shots for (last 5)
12.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
New England Revolution — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↑
6.80
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.60
Shots for (last 5)
12.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Chicago Fire — Corners under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.40
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.67
Fouls for r5
12.40
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
14.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

D. Turgeman to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.50
Player shots (last 5)↑
1.75
Player minutes (last 5)↓
85.60
Player key passes (last 5)
0.80
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

29.9%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Carles Gil to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.50
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player key passes (last 5)
2.40
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

28.9%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
P. Zinckernagel to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.40
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.80
Player minutes (last 5)↓
84.60
Player goals (last 10)
0.10
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

18.9%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

M. Turner over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
14.40
Corners against (last 5)↑
6.80
Player minutes (last 5)↑
92.20
Player saves (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

44.9%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
C. Brady over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
14.00
Player minutes (last 5)↑
91.20
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.60
Player saves (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

44.1%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'26' Goal (New England Revolution) — M. Polster
New England Revolution 92%
Draw 7%
Chicago Fire 0%

At 90' (1-0): home 92%, draw 7%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (12)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Chicago Fire — Corners under 6.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Chicago Fire — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Chicago Fire — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • New England Revolution — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • New England Revolution — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • New England Revolution — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • New England Revolution — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Chicago Fire — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • New England Revolution — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • Chicago Fire — Corners over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Chicago Fire — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • New England Revolution winPermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.