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MLSfinal

Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami

Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Inter Miami winhit
48.2%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
Atlanta United FC winLong shotmiss
29.7%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
22.1%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoreBold pickhit
68.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsBold pickhit
69.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Atlanta United FC — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
14.00
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.40
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
10.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

78.4%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Inter Miami — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.60
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.20
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
16.20
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
3.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.00
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Atlanta United FC — Corners over 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
14.00
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.40
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
10.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Atlanta United FC — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
14.00
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.40
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
10.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Inter Miami — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.60
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.20
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
16.20
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
3.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.00
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

L. Messi to scorehit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
1.00
Player shots (last 5)↑
5.80
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.60
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

53.6%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
G. Galoppo to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.50
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.67
Player key passes (last 5)↑
0.25
Player minutes (last 5)
78.00
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

33.4%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
L. Suárez to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.50
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.25
Player minutes (last 5)↓
84.20
Player key passes (last 5)
2.00
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

30.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

D. St. Clair over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
14.00
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

41.6%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
L. Hoyos over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Player saves (last 5)↓
1.40
Shots against (last 5)↓
10.80
Player minutes (last 5)↑
92.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

36.3%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'45' Goal (Inter Miami) — G. Berterame56' Goal (Inter Miami) — L. Messi60' Goal (Inter Miami) — L. Messi89' Goal (Atlanta United FC) — F. Picault
Atlanta United FC 0%
Draw 0%
Inter Miami 100%

At 90' (1-3): home 0%, draw 0%, away 100%.

Voided predictions (9)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Atlanta United FC — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • Inter Miami — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Inter Miami — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Atlanta United FC — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Atlanta United FC — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Inter Miami — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Atlanta United FC — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Inter Miami — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Miguel Almirón to scorePermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.