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MLSfinal

Orlando City SC vs DC United

Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Orlando City SC winBold pickhit
62.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
19.5%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
DC United winLong shotmiss
18.3%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoreBold pickhit
64.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsBold pickhit
69.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Orlando City SC — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
8.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
19.60
Corners against (last 5)
7.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Orlando City SC — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
8.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
19.60
Corners against (last 5)
7.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
DC United — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.00
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
9.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Orlando City SC — Corners under 5.5hit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
8.80
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
19.60
Corners against (last 5)
7.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

M. Ojeda to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.70
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.60
Player minutes (last 5)↓
87.20
Player key passes (last 5)
1.40
Absence rate r10
0.30

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

36.3%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Tyrese Spicer to scoreLong shot
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player minutes (last 5)↑
57.60
Player key passes (last 5)
1.67
Absence rate r10
1.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

21.8%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
K. Nono to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.22
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.20
Absence rate r10
0.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

21.1%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Louis Munteanu to scoreLong shot
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.25
Absence rate r10↓
1.00
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.40
Player goals (last 10)
0.10
Player minutes (last 5)
81.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

18.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

M. Crépeau over 3.5 savesBold pickmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
19.60
Corners against (last 5)↑
7.20
Player saves (last 5)↑
6.00
Player minutes (last 5)
92.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
S. Johnson over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
17.00
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.80
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

45.4%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'15' Goal (Orlando City SC) — A. Griezmann22' Goal (Orlando City SC) — M. Ojeda45+2' Goal (DC United) — T. Baribo50' Goal (Orlando City SC) — A. Griezmann90+5' Goal (Orlando City SC) — Marco Pasalic
Orlando City SC 100%
Draw 0%
DC United 0%

At 90' (4-1): home 100%, draw 0%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (11)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • DC United — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Orlando City SC — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • DC United — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Orlando City SC — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • DC United — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • Orlando City SC — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • DC United — Corners under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Orlando City SC — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    MLS shots-on-target paused 2026-10-16: the pooled props model never trained on MLS and under-predicted MLS shots on target by 11-16% (registry 2026-10-15, Todoist 6hmV8gr2VhFrWGh7). Withdrawn before kickoff; no outcome was known when voided.

  • DC United — Corners over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • DC United — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • A. Griezmann to scorePermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.