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MLSfinal

Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte

Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 6:30 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Philadelphia Union winmiss
55.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shothit
22.8%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Charlotte winLong shotmiss
21.9%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scorehit
58.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalshit
59.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Philadelphia Union — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
17.00
Shots for (last 5)
17.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
2.80
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

78.4%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Charlotte — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
9.20
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
24.40
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Philadelphia Union — Corners over 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
17.00
Shots for (last 5)
17.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
2.80
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Philadelphia Union — Corners under 6.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
17.00
Shots for (last 5)
17.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
2.80
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Charlotte — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
9.20
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
24.40
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

M. Iloski to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.70
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.80
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.20
Player minutes (last 5)
85.00
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

40.4%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Cavan Sullivan to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.80
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.20
Player minutes (last 5)
80.60
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

37.1%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
L. Abada to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
1.60
Player minutes (last 5)↑
59.00
Player key passes (last 5)
0.75
Absence rate r10
0.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

24.4%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
A. Saint-Maximin to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.60
Player minutes (last 5)↓
87.20
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.20
Player goals (last 10)
0.11
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

16.7%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

K. Kahlina over 3.5 savesBold pickmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
24.40
Corners against (last 5)↑
7.00
Player saves (last 5)↑
7.40
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
A. Blake over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.20
Shots against (last 5)↓
10.00
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.80
Player minutes (last 5)
91.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

37.5%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'24' Goal (Philadelphia Union) — M. Iloski48' Goal (Charlotte) — R. Aloko62' Goal (Charlotte) — I. Toklomati Giorno73' Goal (Philadelphia Union) — B. Damiani
Philadelphia Union 11%
Draw 83%
Charlotte 6%

At 90' (2-2): home 11%, draw 83%, away 6%.

Voided predictions (7)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Charlotte — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Philadelphia Union — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Philadelphia Union — Shots on Target over 4.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Charlotte — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Charlotte — Shots on Target under 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Philadelphia Union — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • A. Rick over 3.5 savesPermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.