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MLSfinal

Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union

Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:30 AM (your local time)

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Match Result

Philadelphia Union winLong shothit
39.0%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Chicago Fire winLong shotmiss
37.1%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
23.9%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoreBold pickhit
64.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsBold pickhit
63.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Philadelphia Union — Corners under 6.5miss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.20
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
17.00
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
8.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

76.3%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Chicago Fire — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.20
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
11.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Philadelphia Union — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.20
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
17.00
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
8.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Chicago Fire — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.20
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
11.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Philadelphia Union — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.20
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
17.00
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
8.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Chicago Fire — Corners over 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.20
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
11.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Philadelphia Union — Shots on Target over 2.5hit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
6.60
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
17.00
Shots for (last 5)
17.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
8.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.2%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Chicago Fire — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.20
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.40
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
11.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

72.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Philadelphia Union — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
6.60
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
17.00
Shots for (last 5)
17.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
8.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

72.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Chicago Fire — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.20
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.40
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.33
Fouls for r5
12.80
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
11.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Philadelphia Union — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
6.60
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
17.00
Shots for (last 5)
17.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
8.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Milan Iloski to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.70
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.20
Player key passes (last 5)↓
0.80
Player minutes (last 5)
83.60
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

40.1%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
R. Lewandowski to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
87.40
Player key passes (last 5)
0.75
Absence rate r10
0.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

32.7%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
P. Zinckernagel to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
4.20
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.80
Player minutes (last 5)↓
84.60
Player goals (last 10)
0.10
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

20.7%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Chris Brady over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
11.00
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.20
Player minutes (last 5)↑
91.20
Player saves (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

39.0%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Andre Blake over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
8.60
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.00
Player saves (last 5)↑
2.60
Player minutes (last 5)
91.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

35.0%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'44' Goal (Chicago Fire) — M. Haile-Selassie45+1' Red card (Chicago Fire) — J. Elliott49' Goal (Philadelphia Union) — M. Iloski55' Goal (Philadelphia Union) — B. Damiani67' Goal (Philadelphia Union) — B. Damiani
Chicago Fire 0%
Draw 0%
Philadelphia Union 100%

At 90' (1-3): home 0%, draw 0%, away 100%.

Voided predictions (1)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Cavan Sullivan to scorePermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.