FixturesStandingsTrack Record

Data from FBref, Understat, and API-Football. Source on GitHub · API docs · RSS

← Back to fixtures
MLSfinal

Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC

Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:30 PM (your local time)

Ask Petey

Match Result

Orlando City SC winLong shotmiss
38.9%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Toronto FC winLong shotmiss
37.1%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shothit
24.1%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoreBold pickhit
64.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsBold pickhit
62.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Toronto FC — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.00
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

72.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Orlando City SC — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.60
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
19.60
Corners against (last 5)
7.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

71.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Toronto FC — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.00
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Orlando City SC — Corners under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.60
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
19.60
Corners against (last 5)
7.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Toronto FC — Shots on Target over 2.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.00
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.4%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Orlando City SC — Shots on Target under 4.5hit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
6.00
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
19.60
Corners against (last 5)
7.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

76.6%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Toronto FC — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.00
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

72.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Orlando City SC — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
6.00
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
19.60
Corners against (last 5)
7.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Toronto FC — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.00
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Toronto FC — Shots on Target under 4.5miss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.00
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Martín Ojeda to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
84.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.40
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

36.4%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Josh Sargent to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.25
Player minutes (last 5)↓
83.80
Player key passes (last 5)
1.60
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

26.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Dániel Sallói to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.67
Player minutes (last 5)↓
86.60
Player key passes (last 5)
1.60
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Tyrese Spicer to scoreLong shot
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player minutes (last 5)↑
57.60
Player key passes (last 5)
1.67
Absence rate r10
1.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

21.8%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Maxime Crépeau over 3.5 savesBold pickhit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
19.20
Player saves (last 5)↑
5.40
Corners against (last 5)↑
7.60
Player minutes (last 5)
92.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
William Yarbrough over 3.5 saves
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
16.00
Corners against (last 5)↑
7.00
Player minutes (last 5)↑
85.40
Player saves (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

48.8%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'26' Goal (Toronto FC) — Lewis Morgan27' Goal (Toronto FC)45+1' Goal (Orlando City SC) — M. Ojeda49' Goal (Toronto FC) — T. Corbeanu76' Goal (Orlando City SC) — A. Griezmann83' Goal (Orlando City SC) — D. Dike89' Goal (Toronto FC) — Matheus Pereira
Toronto FC 8%
Draw 83%
Orlando City SC 9%

At 90' (3-3): home 8%, draw 83%, away 9%.

Voided predictions (4)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Orlando City SC — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Toronto FC — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Orlando City SC — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Luka Gavran over 3.5 savesPermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.