FixturesStandingsTrack Record

Data from FBref, Understat, and API-Football. Source on GitHub · API docs · RSS

← Back to fixtures
MLSfinal

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo

Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 12:30 AM (your local time)

Ask Petey

Match Result

Minnesota United FC winmiss
45.6%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
Houston Dynamo winLong shotmiss
27.9%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shothit
26.4%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scorehit
52.8%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

Corners

Houston Dynamo — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
Rest days
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
8.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.75
Shots against (last 5)
12.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Minnesota United FC — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
13.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Minnesota United FC — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
13.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Houston Dynamo — Corners under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
Rest days
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
8.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.75
Shots against (last 5)
12.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Minnesota United FC — Corners over 4.5miss
Why
Rest days
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
13.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Minnesota United FC — Shots on Target over 2.5hit
Why
Rest days↑
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
13.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.7%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Houston Dynamo — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days↑
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
8.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.75
Shots against (last 5)
12.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Minnesota United FC — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days↑
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
13.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Houston Dynamo — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days↑
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
8.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.75
Shots against (last 5)
12.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Minnesota United FC — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days↑
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
13.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Minnesota United FC — Shots on Target under 4.5miss
Why
Rest days↑
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
13.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.40
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

56.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Houston Dynamo — Shots on Target under 3.5miss
Why
Rest days↑
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
8.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.75
Shots against (last 5)
12.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

56.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

K. Yeboah to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.20
Player key passes (last 5)↓
0.40
Player minutes (last 5)
75.40
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

32.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
T. Chancalay to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
79.60
Player key passes (last 5)
1.50
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

18.0%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

D. Callender over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Player minutes (last 5)↑
91.00
Shots against (last 5)↑
13.40
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.80
Player saves (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

40.9%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
J. Bond over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.60
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.60
Player minutes (last 5)↑
90.00
Shots against (last 5)
12.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

39.1%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'18' Goal (Houston Dynamo) — L. Foster48' Goal (Minnesota United FC) — K. Yeboah78' Goal (Minnesota United FC) — Marcus Caldeira90+2' Goal (Houston Dynamo) — D. McGuire
Minnesota United FC 8%
Draw 86%
Houston Dynamo 6%

At 90' (2-2): home 8%, draw 86%, away 6%.

Voided predictions (2)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Minnesota United FC — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.