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MLSfinal

Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers

Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 12:30 AM (your local time)

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Match Result

Portland Timbers winLong shotmiss
40.8%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Sporting Kansas City winLong shotmiss
36.5%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shothit
22.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoreBold pickhit
69.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsBold pickhit
68.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Portland Timbers — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.20
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.20
Corners for (last 5)
6.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.00
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Sporting Kansas City — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
18.00
Rest days
8
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.40
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.00
Yellows for r5
2.40
Corners against (last 5)
7.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Sporting Kansas City — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
18.00
Rest days
8
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.40
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.00
Yellows for r5
2.40
Corners against (last 5)
7.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Portland Timbers — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.20
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.20
Corners for (last 5)
6.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.00
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Sporting Kansas City — Corners under 5.5miss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
18.00
Rest days
8
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.40
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.00
Yellows for r5
2.40
Corners against (last 5)
7.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Sporting Kansas City — Corners over 4.5hit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
18.00
Rest days
8
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.40
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.00
Yellows for r5
2.40
Corners against (last 5)
7.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

56.2%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Portland Timbers — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.20
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.20
Corners for (last 5)
6.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.00
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Sporting Kansas City — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
7.80
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.60
Rest days
8
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.00
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
18.00
Corners against (last 5)
7.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Portland Timbers — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.20
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.20
Corners for (last 5)
6.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.00
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Sporting Kansas City — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
7.80
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.60
Rest days
8
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.00
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
18.00
Corners against (last 5)
7.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

André Luiz to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
1.00
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.60
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.50
Player minutes (last 5)
75.40
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

40.5%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Kevin Kelsy to scoreLong shot
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.70
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.80
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.00
Player minutes (last 5)
84.80
Absence rate r10
1.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

32.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
K. Velde to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.40
Player minutes (last 5)↓
91.00
Player key passes (last 5)
2.20
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

30.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Stefan Cleveland over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
18.00
Player saves (last 5)↓
5.20
Corners against (last 5)↑
7.80
Player minutes (last 5)
91.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

48.3%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
J. Pantemis over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
11.80
Player minutes (last 5)↑
91.00
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.00
Player saves (last 5)
3.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

38.6%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'10' Goal (Portland Timbers)10' Goal (Portland Timbers) — David Pereira da Costa45+4' Goal (Portland Timbers) — V. Janssen45+7' Goal (Sporting Kansas City) — André Luiz64' Goal (Portland Timbers) — A. Lassiter70' Goal (Sporting Kansas City) — C. Harris70' Goal (Sporting Kansas City) — Justin Reynolds72' Goal (Sporting Kansas City) — André Luiz
Sporting Kansas City 9%
Draw 81%
Portland Timbers 10%

At 90' (3-3): home 9%, draw 81%, away 10%.

Voided predictions (2)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Portland Timbers — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Sporting Kansas City — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.