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MLSfinal

Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 11:30 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Philadelphia Union winBold pickhit
60.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
21.3%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Real Salt Lake winLong shotmiss
18.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scorehit
57.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsBold pickhit
60.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Real Salt Lake — Corners under 5.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.40
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
13.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

80.0%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Philadelphia Union — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
Rest days
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
15.80
Shots for (last 5)
18.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
7.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

76.6%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Real Salt Lake — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.40
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
13.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Philadelphia Union — Corners over 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
15.80
Shots for (last 5)
18.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
7.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Philadelphia Union — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
14
Shots on target for (last 5)
7.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
15.80
Shots for (last 5)
18.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
7.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Philadelphia Union — Shots on Target over 3.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
18.20
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
7.20
Rest days
14
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
15.80
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
7.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.6%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Real Salt Lake — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.40
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
13.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Real Salt Lake — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.40
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
13.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Philadelphia Union — Shots on Target over 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
18.20
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
7.20
Rest days
14
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
15.80
Corners for (last 5)
5.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
7.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Real Salt Lake — Shots on Target under 3.5miss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.40
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.20
Corners for (last 5)
5.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
13.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

56.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Milan Iloski to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.70
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.80
Player key passes (last 5)↓
0.80
Player minutes (last 5)
83.80
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

40.3%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Saba Lobzhanidze to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player minutes (last 5)↑
58.20
Player key passes (last 5)
1.50
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Diego Luna to scoreLong shot
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.50
Player key passes (last 5)↑
3.25
Player minutes (last 5)
82.80
Absence rate r10
1.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

24.7%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Rafael Cabral over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
13.20
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.40
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.80
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

39.7%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Andrew Rick over 3.5 savesLong shot
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
7.40
Player saves (last 5)↑
2.40
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.60
Player minutes (last 5)
93.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

28.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'31' Goal (Philadelphia Union) — B. Damiani81' Goal (Philadelphia Union) — M. Iloski90+6' Goal (Real Salt Lake) — S. Lobzhanidze
Philadelphia Union 94%
Draw 5%
Real Salt Lake 0%

At 90' (2-1): home 94%, draw 5%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (3)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Philadelphia Union — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Cavan Sullivan to scorePermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Andre Blake over 3.5 savesPermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.