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MLSfinal

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 6:30 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Chicago Fire winLong shothit
42.4%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
New York City FC winLong shotmiss
32.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
25.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scorehit
58.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Corners

New York City FC — Corners under 5.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.00
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Fouls for r5
10.80
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

80.0%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Chicago Fire — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.40
Shots for (last 5)
16.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
12.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

76.6%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
New York City FC — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.00
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Fouls for r5
10.80
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Chicago Fire — Corners over 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.40
Shots for (last 5)
16.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
12.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Chicago Fire — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.40
Shots for (last 5)
16.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
12.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

New York City FC — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
13
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
11.00
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Chicago Fire — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.40
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
12.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Chicago Fire — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.40
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
12.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
New York City FC — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
13
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
11.00
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
New York City FC — Shots on Target under 3.5miss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
13
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
11.00
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

R. Lewandowski to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
91.20
Player key passes (last 5)
1.00
Absence rate r10
0.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

32.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
P. Zinckernagel to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
4.75
Player key passes (last 5)↑
3.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
88.40
Player goals (last 10)
0.10
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

22.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Luighi Hanri to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.43
Player shots (last 5)↑
1.60
Player minutes (last 5)↓
69.00
Player key passes (last 5)
0.00
Absence rate r10
0.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

21.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Talles Magno to scoreLong shot
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.67
Player minutes (last 5)↑
55.80
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.00
Player goals (last 10)
0.10
Absence rate r10
1.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

17.0%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

J. Cohen over 3.5 savesLong shot
Why
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.25
Player minutes (last 5)↑
92.00
Corners against (last 5)↑
4.40
Shots against (last 5)
12.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

39.3%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Tomás Romero over 3.5 savesLong shot
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
11.20
Player minutes (last 5)↑
91.20
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.80
Corners against (last 5)
5.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

38.4%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'19' Goal (New York City FC)19' Goal (New York City FC) — H. Wolf43' Red card (Chicago Fire) — T. D'Avilla55' Goal (Chicago Fire) — A. Salétros87' Goal (Chicago Fire) — M. Haile-Selassie
Chicago Fire 88%
Draw 11%
New York City FC 1%

At 90' (2-1): home 88%, draw 11%, away 1%.

Voided predictions (4)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Chicago Fire — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Chicago Fire — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Chris Brady over 3.5 savesPermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Matthew Freese over 3.5 savesPermalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.