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MLSfinal

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Toronto FC winhit
47.6%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
CF Montreal winLong shotmiss
26.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
25.6%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scorehit
54.7%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalshit
51.6%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

Corners

CF Montreal — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.40
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Fouls for r5
11.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Toronto FC — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.60
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.60
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Toronto FC — Corners under 6.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.60
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.60
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
CF Montreal — Corners under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.40
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Fouls for r5
11.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Toronto FC — Corners over 4.5hit
Why
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.60
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.60
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Toronto FC — Shots on Target over 2.5hit
Why
Shots on target against (last 5)↓
7.60
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.60
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.7%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Toronto FC — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target against (last 5)↓
7.60
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.60
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
CF Montreal — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.40
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Fouls for r5
11.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
CF Montreal — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.40
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Fouls for r5
11.60
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Toronto FC — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target against (last 5)↓
7.60
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.60
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Toronto FC — Shots on Target under 4.5miss
Why
Shots on target against (last 5)↓
7.60
Rest days
13
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.60
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

56.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Prince Owusu to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.60
Player minutes (last 5)↓
84.80
Player key passes (last 5)
1.40
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

36.0%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
J. Sargent to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.50
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.40
Player minutes (last 5)
83.80
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

28.7%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
D. Sallói to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
86.60
Player key passes (last 5)
1.60
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.9%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

L. Gavran over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.80
Player saves (last 5)↑
5.40
Corners against (last 5)↓
6.40
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

48.4%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
Sebastian Breza over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
16.00
Player minutes (last 5)↑
93.00
Corners against (last 5)↑
4.20
Player saves (last 5)
3.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

47.8%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'51' Goal (CF Montreal) — D. Ríos90+3' Goal (Toronto FC) — Lewis Morgan90+5' Goal (Toronto FC) — D. Mihailović
Toronto FC 94%
Draw 6%
CF Montreal 0%

At 90' (2-1): home 94%, draw 6%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (2)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Toronto FC — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • CF Montreal — Corners over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 20 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.