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SERIE_Afinal

Lazio vs Cagliari

Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 2:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Lazio winhit
57.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
23.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Cagliari winLong shotmiss
18.7%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Lazio — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.04
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.00
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.60
xG against (last 5)
1.39
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Cagliari — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners against (last 5)↓
8.00
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.53
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
9.60
xG against (last 5)
2.39
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
18.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lazio — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.04
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.00
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.60
xG against (last 5)
1.39
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Cagliari — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners against (last 5)↓
8.00
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.53
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
9.60
xG against (last 5)
2.39
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
18.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Lazio — Corners over 4.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.04
Shots for (last 5)↑
15.00
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.60
xG against (last 5)
1.39
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Lazio — Shots on Target over 3.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.04
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.00
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.60
Shots for (last 5)
15.00
xG against (last 5)
1.39
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.3%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Cagliari — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.60
Shots for (last 5)↓
9.60
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.53
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
xG against (last 5)
2.39
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
18.40
Corners against (last 5)
8.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Cagliari — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.60
Shots for (last 5)↓
9.60
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.53
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
xG against (last 5)
2.39
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
18.40
Corners against (last 5)
8.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lazio — Shots on Target over 4.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.04
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.00
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.60
Shots for (last 5)
15.00
xG against (last 5)
1.39
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Lazio — Shots on Target under 5.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.04
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.00
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.60
Shots for (last 5)
15.00
xG against (last 5)
1.39
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

55.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Lazio — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Yellows for r5↓
1.40
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
2.04
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
8.60
Shots for (last 5)
15.00
xG against (last 5)
1.39
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.80
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Cagliari — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↓
1.60
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.53
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
9.60
xG against (last 5)
2.39
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Shots against (last 5)
18.40
Corners against (last 5)
8.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Cagliari — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↓
1.60
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.53
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
9.60
xG against (last 5)
2.39
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
6.80
Shots against (last 5)
18.40
Corners against (last 5)
8.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

T. Noslin to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.25
Player key passes (last 5)↓
0.80
Player minutes (last 5)
76.40
Absence rate r10
0.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

26.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
M. Zaccagni to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.75
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player key passes (last 5)↑
3.50
Player minutes (last 5)
86.00
Absence rate r10
0.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

24.5%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
P. Mendy to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.50
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.00
Player goals (last 10)↓
0.10
Player minutes (last 5)
82.60
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

17.1%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

E. Caprile over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
18.40
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.80
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Corners against (last 5)
8.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

47.5%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
C. Mandas over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
11.80
Player saves (last 5)↑
3.40
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.60
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

39.2%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'20' Goal (Cagliari) — M'Bala Nzola21' Goal (Cagliari) — M'Bala Nzola36' Goal (Lazio) — G. Isaksen83' Goal (Lazio) — A. Pinamonti90+1' Red card (Cagliari) — A. Obert
Lazio 98%
Draw 2%
Cagliari 0%

At 90' (2-1): home 98%, draw 2%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (4)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Lazio — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Cagliari — Corners over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.