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SERIE_Afinal

Frosinone vs Lecce

Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 5:30 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Lecce winLong shotmiss
24.0%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
22.5%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoreBold pickhit
61.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsBold pickhit
61.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Frosinone — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.11
Shots for (last 5)↑
22.00
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.20
xG against (last 5)
2.90
Corners for (last 5)
6.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.20
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
19.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

78.6%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Lecce — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
12.00
xG for (last 5)↑
1.54
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
13.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
xG against (last 5)
1.83
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

72.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Frosinone — Corners over 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.11
Shots for (last 5)↑
22.00
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.20
xG against (last 5)
2.90
Corners for (last 5)
6.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.20
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
19.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Frosinone — Corners under 6.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.11
Shots for (last 5)↑
22.00
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.20
xG against (last 5)
2.90
Corners for (last 5)
6.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.20
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
19.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Lecce — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
12.00
xG for (last 5)↑
1.54
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
13.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
xG against (last 5)
1.83
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Frosinone — Shots on Target over 4.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.11
Shots for (last 5)↑
22.00
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.20
xG against (last 5)
2.90
Corners for (last 5)
6.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.20
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
19.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

76.8%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Lecce — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.20
Shots against (last 5)↓
12.00
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.54
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
13.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
xG against (last 5)
1.83
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lecce — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.20
Shots against (last 5)↓
12.00
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.54
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
13.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
xG against (last 5)
1.83
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Yellows for r5
1.40
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Frosinone — Shots on Target over 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.11
Shots for (last 5)↑
22.00
Rest days
4
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.20
xG against (last 5)
2.90
Corners for (last 5)
6.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.20
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
19.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Frosinone — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Fouls for r5↑
14.20
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
2.11
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Shots for (last 5)
22.00
xG against (last 5)
2.90
Corners for (last 5)
6.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.20
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
19.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lecce — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Yellows for r5↓
1.40
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.54
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
13.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
xG against (last 5)
1.83
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Shots against (last 5)
12.00
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lecce — Cards under 2.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Yellows for r5↓
1.40
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.54
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
13.40
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
xG against (last 5)
1.83
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.80
Shots against (last 5)
12.00
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Frosinone — Cards over 1.5miss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Fouls for r5↑
14.20
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
2.11
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Shots for (last 5)
22.00
xG against (last 5)
2.90
Corners for (last 5)
6.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.20
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
19.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Antonio Raimondo to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.70
Player shots (last 5)↑
4.25
Player key passes (last 5)↑
0.00
Player minutes (last 5)
80.60
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

43.2%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Giacomo Calò to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.38
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.60
Player key passes (last 5)↑
3.80
Player minutes (last 5)
85.80
Absence rate r10
0.30

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

27.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Konan N'Dri to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.25
Player minutes (last 5)↑
66.40
Player key passes (last 5)
1.00
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

24.4%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Lorenzo Palmisani over 3.5 saveshit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
19.80
Corners against (last 5)↑
6.80
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.60
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

50.6%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
Wladimiro Falcone over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
12.00
Corners against (last 5)↓
3.00
Player saves (last 5)↑
2.80
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

37.1%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'25' Goal (Frosinone) — Matteo Cichella45+1' Goal (Frosinone) — G. Calò59' Goal (Frosinone) — A. Raimondo72' Goal (Frosinone) — D. Bîrligea82' Goal (Lecce) — Joël Monteiro90+4' Goal (Frosinone) — D. Bîrligea
Frosinone 100%
Draw 0%
Lecce 0%

At 90' (5-1): home 100%, draw 0%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (7)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Frosinone — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Frosinone — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Lecce — Shots on Target under 3.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Frosinone — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Frosinone — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Frosinone — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Frosinone winPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.