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SERIE_Afinal

Genoa vs Juventus

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 7:45 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
27.0%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Genoa winLong shothit
19.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsLong shotmiss
39.5%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Genoa — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.08
xG against (last 5)↓
1.47
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
3.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.8%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Juventus — Corners under 6.5miss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↑
6.20
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.40
Rest days
3
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
xG against (last 5)
0.82
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
0.80
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.8%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Genoa — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.08
xG against (last 5)↓
1.47
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
3.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Juventus — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↑
6.20
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.40
Rest days
3
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
xG against (last 5)
0.82
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
0.80
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Genoa — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.08
xG against (last 5)↓
1.47
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.00
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
3.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Juventus — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↑
6.20
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.40
Rest days
3
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
xG against (last 5)
0.82
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
0.80
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Juventus — Shots on Target over 2.5hit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.40
Rest days↑
3
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
14.40
xG against (last 5)
0.82
Corners for (last 5)
6.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
0.80
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.4%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Genoa — Shots on Target over 2.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.08
Shots against (last 5)↓
15.60
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.00
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
3.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.2%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Genoa — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.08
Shots against (last 5)↓
15.60
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.00
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
3.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Juventus — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.40
Rest days↑
3
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
14.40
xG against (last 5)
0.82
Corners for (last 5)
6.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
0.80
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Juventus — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.40
Rest days↑
3
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
14.40
xG against (last 5)
0.82
Corners for (last 5)
6.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
0.80
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.2%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Genoa — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.08
Shots against (last 5)↓
15.60
Rest days
3
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.50
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.00
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
3.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Genoa — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days↓
3
Fouls for r5↓
11.20
xG for (last 5)
1.08
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.50
Shots for (last 5)
11.00
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
3.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.00
Referee avg cards r10
4.16

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Juventus — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Yellows for r5↓
0.80
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days
3
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
14.40
xG against (last 5)
0.82
Corners for (last 5)
6.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Juventus — Cards over 1.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Yellows for r5↓
0.80
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days
3
xG for (last 5)
1.39
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
14.40
xG against (last 5)
0.82
Corners for (last 5)
6.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Randal Kolo Muani to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player shots (last 5)↑
1.75
Player minutes (last 5)↓
85.40
Player key passes (last 5)
1.50
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

18.2%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

J. Bijlow over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.60
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Corners against (last 5)↑
6.00
Player saves (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

44.4%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Guglielmo Vicario over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Player saves (last 5)↓
1.80
Shots against (last 5)↑
10.00
Corners against (last 5)↑
4.20
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

39.5%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'12' Goal (Genoa) — K. Ehizibue28' Goal (Genoa) — T. Baldanzi
Genoa 100%
Draw 0%
Juventus 0%

At 90' (2-0): home 100%, draw 0%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (5)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Juventus — Corners under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Juventus — Shots on Target under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Genoa — Shots on Target over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Juventus winPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.