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SERIE_Afinal

Milan vs Bologna

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 5:30 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
25.1%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Bologna winLong shothit
24.3%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Bologna — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
9.20
Corners for (last 5)↓
2.40
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.22
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
xG against (last 5)
1.61
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Milan — Corners over 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.42
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
9.60
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

72.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bologna — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
9.20
Corners for (last 5)↓
2.40
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.22
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
xG against (last 5)
1.61
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Milan — Corners over 5.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.42
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Rest days
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
9.60
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Milan — Shots on Target over 3.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.42
Rest days↑
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
9.60
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

79.7%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Bologna — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
xG for (last 5)↓
1.22
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
9.20
xG against (last 5)
1.61
Corners for (last 5)
2.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Milan — Shots on Target over 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.42
Rest days↑
2
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
9.60
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Bologna — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
xG for (last 5)↓
1.22
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
9.20
xG against (last 5)
1.61
Corners for (last 5)
2.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.2%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Bologna — Shots on Target under 3.5miss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
xG for (last 5)↓
1.22
Rest days
4
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
9.20
xG against (last 5)
1.61
Corners for (last 5)
2.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Milan — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days↓
2
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
xG for (last 5)
2.42
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
9.60
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

71.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bologna — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days↑
4
xG for (last 5)
1.22
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
9.20
xG against (last 5)
1.61
Corners for (last 5)
2.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bologna — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days↑
4
xG for (last 5)
1.22
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
11.40
Shots for (last 5)
9.20
xG against (last 5)
1.61
Corners for (last 5)
2.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Milan — Cards over 1.5miss
Why
Rest days↓
2
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
xG for (last 5)
2.42
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.00
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
9.60
Corners against (last 5)
3.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

57.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Federico Bernardeschi to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
84.40
Player key passes (last 5)
1.25
Absence rate r10
0.70

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Gonçalo Ramos to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.75
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.25
Player minutes (last 5)↓
88.80
Player key passes (last 5)
0.50
Absence rate r10
0.30

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

22.4%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
R. Loftus-Cheek to scoreLong shot
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player minutes (last 5)↑
47.20
Player key passes (last 5)
2.25
Absence rate r10
1.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

21.9%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Łukasz Skorupski over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
13.60
Corners against (last 5)↑
6.60
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.60
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

42.8%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
M. Maignan over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
9.60
Player saves (last 5)↓
3.40
Corners against (last 5)↓
3.00
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

32.6%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'8' Goal (Bologna) — S. Mbangula14' Goal (Milan) — A. Cissè27' Goal (Milan) — A. Cissè62' Goal (Bologna) — S. Mbangula86' Goal (Bologna) — S. Mbangula
Milan 0%
Draw 0%
Bologna 100%

At 90' (2-4): home 0%, draw 0%, away 100%.

Voided predictions (7)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Milan — Corners under 6.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Milan — Corners over 3.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Milan — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Milan — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Milan winPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.