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SERIE_Afinal

Genoa vs Venezia

Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 2:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
26.1%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Venezia winLong shotmiss
23.9%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Venezia — Corners under 6.5miss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.00
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
1.72
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
xG against (last 5)
2.56
Shots on target against (last 5)
8.20
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
19.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.0%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Genoa — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.17
Shots against (last 5)↓
15.80
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.46
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.2%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Venezia — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.00
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
1.72
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
xG against (last 5)
2.56
Shots on target against (last 5)
8.20
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
19.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Genoa — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.17
Shots against (last 5)↓
15.80
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.46
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Genoa — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.17
Shots against (last 5)↓
15.80
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.46
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Venezia — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.00
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
1.72
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
xG against (last 5)
2.56
Shots on target against (last 5)
8.20
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
19.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

56.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Genoa — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.17
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
7
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.46
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Genoa — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.17
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
7
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.46
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Venezia — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots on target against (last 5)↓
8.20
xG for (last 5)↑
1.72
Rest days
8
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
14.00
xG against (last 5)
2.56
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
19.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Venezia — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target against (last 5)↓
8.20
xG for (last 5)↑
1.72
Rest days
8
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
14.00
xG against (last 5)
2.56
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
19.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Genoa — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.17
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
7
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.46
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Genoa — Shots on Target over 3.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.17
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
7
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.46
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

57.2%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Venezia — Cards over 1.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
3.20
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
1.72
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
14.00
xG against (last 5)
2.56
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
8.20
Shots against (last 5)
19.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Genoa — Cards over 1.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Reds for r5↑
1.00
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.17
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.46
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Venezia — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
3.20
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
1.72
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
14.00
xG against (last 5)
2.56
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
8.20
Shots against (last 5)
19.00
Corners against (last 5)
6.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Genoa — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Reds for r5↑
1.00
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.17
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Fouls for r5
10.40
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.46
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Akor Adams to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.60
Player key passes (last 5)↑
1.67
Player minutes (last 5)
81.20
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

27.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
John Yeboah to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.20
Player key passes (last 5)↑
1.60
Absence rate r10↑
0.00
Player goals (last 10)
0.10
Player minutes (last 5)
73.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

18.0%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Filip Stanković over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
19.00
Player saves (last 5)↑
6.75
Corners against (last 5)↓
6.20
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

49.7%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
Justin Bijlow over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.80
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.80
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player saves (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

44.4%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'25' Goal (Genoa)25' Goal (Genoa) — M. Ellertsson
Genoa 95%
Draw 5%
Venezia 0%

At 90' (1-0): home 95%, draw 5%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (5)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Venezia — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Venezia — Corners under 4.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Genoa winPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.