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SERIE_Afinal

Cagliari vs Bologna

Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 1:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Bologna winLong shothit
43.6%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Cagliari winLong shotmiss
29.3%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
27.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Bologna — Corners under 5.5miss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.40
Corners against (last 5)↓
7.80
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.27
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Fouls for r5
11.60
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.8%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Cagliari — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Shots for (last 5)↓
10.00
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.49
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.40
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
18.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.2%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Cagliari — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Shots for (last 5)↓
10.00
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.49
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.40
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
18.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Cagliari — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
Shots for (last 5)↓
10.00
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.49
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.40
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
18.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Bologna — Corners under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.40
Corners against (last 5)↓
7.80
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.27
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Fouls for r5
11.60
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Bologna — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
xG for (last 5)↓
1.27
Rest days
6
Fouls for r5
11.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.40
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Cagliari — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.60
Shots for (last 5)↑
10.00
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.49
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.40
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
18.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Cagliari — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.60
Shots for (last 5)↑
10.00
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.49
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.40
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
18.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bologna — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
xG for (last 5)↓
1.27
Rest days
6
Fouls for r5
11.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.40
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Bologna — Shots on Target under 3.5miss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
xG for (last 5)↓
1.27
Rest days
6
Fouls for r5
11.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.40
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

56.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Cagliari — Cards under 2.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Yellows for r5↓
1.25
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.49
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.40
Shots for (last 5)
10.00
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Shots against (last 5)
18.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

71.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bologna — Cards over 1.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Fouls for r5↓
11.60
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.27
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Shots for (last 5)
11.40
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bologna — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Fouls for r5↓
11.60
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.27
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Shots for (last 5)
11.40
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Corners for (last 5)
3.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.00
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Cagliari — Cards over 1.5hit
Why
Yellows for r5↓
1.25
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days
4
xG for (last 5)
1.49
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.40
Shots for (last 5)
10.00
xG against (last 5)
1.87
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.60
Shots against (last 5)
18.80
Corners against (last 5)
7.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

56.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

D. Maldini to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
1.60
Player minutes (last 5)↑
68.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.50
Absence rate r10
0.90

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

22.8%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Federico Bernardeschi to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
84.80
Player key passes (last 5)
1.50
Absence rate r10
0.70

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

21.0%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
P. Mendy to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)↓
79.40
Player key passes (last 5)
1.25
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

20.2%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

E. Caprile over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
18.80
Corners against (last 5)↑
7.00
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.60
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

52.0%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
Łukasz Skorupski over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.80
Corners against (last 5)↑
7.80
Player saves (last 5)↑
2.80
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

49.0%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'57' Goal (Bologna) — N. Casale80' Goal (Bologna) — F. Bernardeschi
Cagliari 0%
Draw 0%
Bologna 100%

At 90' (0-2): home 0%, draw 0%, away 100%.

Voided predictions (4)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Cagliari — Shots on Target over 2.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Bologna — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.