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SERIE_Afinal

Lazio vs Parma

Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 6:45 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Lazio winhit
58.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
24.7%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Parma winLong shotmiss
16.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Parma — Corners under 5.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.00
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.60
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
xG against (last 5)
2.10
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.8%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Lazio — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.69
xG against (last 5)↓
1.48
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

71.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lazio — Corners under 6.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.69
xG against (last 5)↓
1.48
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Parma — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.00
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.60
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
xG against (last 5)
2.10
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Lazio — Corners over 4.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.69
xG against (last 5)↓
1.48
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

57.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Parma — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.00
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.60
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
xG against (last 5)
2.10
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lazio — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.80
xG for (last 5)↑
1.69
Rest days
6
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
xG against (last 5)
1.48
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Parma — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.00
Shots for (last 5)↓
11.60
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
xG against (last 5)
2.10
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lazio — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.80
xG for (last 5)↑
1.69
Rest days
6
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
xG against (last 5)
1.48
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Lazio — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↓
1.60
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
1.69
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
9.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.00
xG against (last 5)
1.48
Corners for (last 5)
5.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Shots against (last 5)
13.20
Corners against (last 5)
5.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

71.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Parma — Cards over 1.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.00
Rest days
5
xG for (last 5)
1.00
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.60
xG against (last 5)
2.10
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Parma — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.00
Rest days
5
xG for (last 5)
1.00
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.60
xG against (last 5)
2.10
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Shots against (last 5)
17.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

D. Romero to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.33
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.50
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.00
Player minutes (last 5)
67.33
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.4%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Gustav Isaksen to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player minutes (last 5)↑
59.80
Player key passes (last 5)
0.00
Absence rate r10
0.10

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

23.9%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
S. Lontani to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.67
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.17
Player minutes (last 5)↑
57.80
Player key passes (last 5)
0.00
Absence rate r10
0.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

23.1%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Mattia Zaccagni to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.75
Player minutes (last 5)↓
88.40
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.50
Player goals (last 10)
0.10
Absence rate r10
0.30

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

17.2%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

E. Corvi over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
17.00
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.80
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player saves (last 5)
3.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

44.5%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Christos Mandas over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.80
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.00
Shots against (last 5)↑
13.20
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

37.3%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'41' Goal (Lazio) — G. Isaksen50' Goal (Lazio) — K. Taylor90+5' Goal (Parma) — S. Lontani
Lazio 96%
Draw 4%
Parma 0%

At 90' (2-1): home 96%, draw 4%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (4)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Parma — Shots on Target under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Lazio — Corners under 5.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.