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SERIE_Afinal

Fiorentina vs Como

Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 1:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Fiorentina winLong shotmiss
29.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
25.9%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Fiorentina — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.05
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.60
Rest days
8
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.11
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.50
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

78.4%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Como — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.09
Shots for (last 5)↑
23.20
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
7.40
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
7.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Como — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.09
Shots for (last 5)↑
23.20
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
7.40
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
7.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Fiorentina — Corners over 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.05
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.60
Rest days
8
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.11
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.50
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Fiorentina — Corners under 6.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.05
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.60
Rest days
8
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.11
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.50
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Como — Corners under 5.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.09
Shots for (last 5)↑
23.20
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
7.40
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
7.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Como — Shots on Target over 3.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
23.20
xG for (last 5)↑
2.09
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
7.40
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
7.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.7%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Fiorentina — Shots on Target over 3.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.05
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.40
Rest days
8
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
xG against (last 5)
1.11
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.50
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.6%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Como — Shots on Target over 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
23.20
xG for (last 5)↑
2.09
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
7.40
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
7.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Yellows for r5
1.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Fiorentina — Shots on Target over 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.05
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.40
Rest days
8
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
xG against (last 5)
1.11
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Yellows for r5
2.50
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Como — Cards under 2.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Yellows for r5↓
1.20
Fouls for r5↓
7.40
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
2.09
Shots on target for (last 5)
6.80
Reds for r5
0.00
Shots for (last 5)
23.20
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
7.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
13.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00
Referee avg cards r10
4.16

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

71.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Fiorentina — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.50
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
2.05
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
xG against (last 5)
1.11
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Fiorentina — Cards over 1.5hit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.50
Rest days
8
xG for (last 5)
2.05
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
xG against (last 5)
1.11
Corners for (last 5)
4.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.40
Shots against (last 5)
10.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Franco Mastantuono to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.40
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.20
Player minutes (last 5)
80.80
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

27.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Nico Paz to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.60
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.20
Player minutes (last 5)
84.20
Absence rate r10
0.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Arthur Atta to scoreLong shot
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player minutes (last 5)↑
67.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.25
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

22.4%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Jean Butez over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.00
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.00
Shots against (last 5)↑
13.40
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

37.0%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
David De Gea over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
10.40
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.60
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

36.7%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'32' Goal (Como) — Mattia Liberali36' Goal (Como) — N. Paz42' Goal (Fiorentina) — Marin Pongračić45+4' Goal (Fiorentina) — Marin Pongračić56' Goal (Como) — T. Douvikas
Fiorentina 0%
Draw 0%
Como 100%

At 90' (1-3): home 0%, draw 0%, away 100%.

Voided predictions (3)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Como winPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.