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SERIE_Afinal

Udinese vs Lecce

Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 10:30 AM (your local time)

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Match Result

Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
26.7%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Lecce winLong shothit
22.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Lecce — Corners under 5.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.86
Shots for (last 5)↓
9.80
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.60
xG against (last 5)
2.53
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

76.7%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Udinese — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.26
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
xG against (last 5)
2.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Udinese — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.26
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
xG against (last 5)
2.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lecce — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.86
Shots for (last 5)↓
9.80
Rest days
6
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.60
xG against (last 5)
2.53
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.2%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Udinese — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.26
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
xG against (last 5)
2.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Lecce — Shots on Target under 4.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.86
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
6
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.60
Shots for (last 5)
9.80
xG against (last 5)
2.53
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

76.5%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Udinese — Shots on Target over 2.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.26
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.40
Rest days
5
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
xG against (last 5)
2.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.5%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Udinese — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.26
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.40
Rest days
5
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
xG against (last 5)
2.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lecce — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.86
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
6
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.60
Shots for (last 5)
9.80
xG against (last 5)
2.53
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Udinese — Shots on Target under 4.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.26
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.40
Rest days
5
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
xG against (last 5)
2.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Udinese — Shots on Target over 3.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.26
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.40
Rest days
5
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
xG against (last 5)
2.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Lecce — Shots on Target under 3.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.86
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
6
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.60
Shots for (last 5)
9.80
xG against (last 5)
2.53
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.40
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

57.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Udinese — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days↓
5
xG for (last 5)
1.26
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
xG against (last 5)
2.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

71.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lecce — Cards over 1.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.00
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
0.86
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.60
Shots for (last 5)
9.80
xG against (last 5)
2.53
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.40
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lecce — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.00
Rest days
6
xG for (last 5)
0.86
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
13.60
Shots for (last 5)
9.80
xG against (last 5)
2.53
Corners for (last 5)
4.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.40
Shots against (last 5)
14.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Udinese — Cards over 1.5miss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days↓
5
xG for (last 5)
1.26
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
xG against (last 5)
2.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.80
Yellows for r5
1.80
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

J. Ekkelenkamp to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.40
Player minutes (last 5)↓
88.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.00
Absence rate r10
0.30

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

26.0%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Lassana Coulibaly to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player shots (last 5)↑
1.75
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.67
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

17.2%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Wladimiro Falcone over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
14.80
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.80
Corners against (last 5)↑
3.80
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

43.7%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
M. Okoye over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.60
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player saves (last 5)
3.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

43.4%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'11' Goal (Lecce) — Kialonda Gaspar33' Goal (Lecce) — K. N’Dri59' Goal (Udinese) — J. Piotrowski
Udinese 0%
Draw 2%
Lecce 97%

At 79' (0-2): home 0%, draw 2%, away 97%.

Voided predictions (3)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Udinese winPermalink

    Slated 43 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 43 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 43 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.