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SERIE_Afinal

Milan vs Atalanta

Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 4:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Atalanta winLong shotmiss
31.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
25.0%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scorehit
59.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Atalanta — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
xG for (last 5)↓
1.21
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.40
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
2.04
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Yellows for r5
0.80
Shots against (last 5)
18.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Milan — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.00
Shots against (last 5)↑
9.40
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.55
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.20
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
2.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Milan — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.00
Shots against (last 5)↑
9.40
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.55
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.20
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
2.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Atalanta — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.60
xG for (last 5)↓
1.21
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.40
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
2.04
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Yellows for r5
0.80
Shots against (last 5)
18.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.2%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Milan — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.00
Shots against (last 5)↑
9.40
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.55
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.20
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
2.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Milan — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.60
xG against (last 5)↑
1.30
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.55
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.20
Corners for (last 5)
3.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
9.40
Corners against (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Atalanta — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG against (last 5)↓
2.04
xG for (last 5)↓
1.21
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.40
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Yellows for r5
0.80
Shots against (last 5)
18.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Atalanta — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG against (last 5)↓
2.04
xG for (last 5)↓
1.21
Rest days
5
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.40
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Yellows for r5
0.80
Shots against (last 5)
18.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Milan — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.60
xG against (last 5)↑
1.30
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.55
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.20
Corners for (last 5)
3.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
9.40
Corners against (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Milan — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Reds for r5↓
0.00
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.55
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
11.20
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Corners for (last 5)
3.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
9.40
Corners against (last 5)
3.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

71.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Atalanta — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Yellows for r5↓
0.80
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days
5
xG for (last 5)
1.21
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.40
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
2.04
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Shots against (last 5)
18.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Atalanta — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Yellows for r5↓
0.80
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days
5
xG for (last 5)
1.21
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.40
Fouls for r5
10.60
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
2.04
Corners for (last 5)
3.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.40
Shots against (last 5)
18.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

N. Krstović to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player minutes (last 5)↑
65.40
Player key passes (last 5)
0.75
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

29.0%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
R. Loftus-Cheek to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player minutes (last 5)↑
47.20
Player key passes (last 5)
2.25
Absence rate r10
0.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

22.5%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Gonçalo Ramos to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.00
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.17
Player minutes (last 5)↓
89.00
Player key passes (last 5)
0.67
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

21.9%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
F. Kessié to scoreLong shot
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.67
Player goals (last 10)↓
0.10
Player key passes (last 5)↓
1.50
Player minutes (last 5)
73.80
Absence rate r10
1.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

17.1%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

M. Carnesecchi over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
18.60
Player saves (last 5)↓
4.20
Player minutes (last 5)↑
90.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

49.9%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
M. Maignan over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
9.40
Player saves (last 5)↓
3.20
Corners against (last 5)↓
3.60
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

32.1%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'13' Goal (Milan)13' Goal (Milan) — C. Pulišić24' Goal (Milan) — Gonçalo Ramos43' Goal (Milan) — A. Rabiot57' Goal (Milan) — Mario Gila66' Goal (Atalanta) — G. Gaetano81' Goal (Atalanta) — N. Krstović
Milan 93%
Draw 7%
Atalanta 0%

At 90' (3-2): home 93%, draw 7%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (2)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Milan winPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.