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SERIE_Afinal

Lecce vs Bologna

Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 1:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
27.5%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Lecce winLong shotmiss
22.9%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsLong shothit
40.5%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Lecce — Corners under 6.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.17
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
8.40
xG against (last 5)
2.64
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
16.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

78.5%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Bologna — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
4.20
xG for (last 5)↓
1.31
Rest days
22
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.60
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.05
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lecce — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.17
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
8.40
xG against (last 5)
2.64
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
16.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bologna — Corners under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
4.20
xG for (last 5)↓
1.31
Rest days
22
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.60
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.05
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Lecce — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.17
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
8.40
xG against (last 5)
2.64
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
16.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Bologna — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.20
Shots against (last 5)↑
11.80
Rest days
22
xG for (last 5)
1.31
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.60
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.05
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lecce — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.17
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
8.40
xG against (last 5)
2.64
Corners for (last 5)
3.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
16.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bologna — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.20
Shots against (last 5)↑
11.80
Rest days
22
xG for (last 5)
1.31
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.60
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.05
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.60
Corners against (last 5)
6.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Lecce — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.17
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.40
Rest days
20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
8.40
xG against (last 5)
2.64
Corners for (last 5)
3.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
16.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Lecce — Cards under 2.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days↓
20
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
xG for (last 5)
1.17
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
8.40
xG against (last 5)
2.64
Corners for (last 5)
3.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
16.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bologna — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Fouls for r5↑
14.60
Rest days↓
22
xG for (last 5)
1.31
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.05
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.00
Referee avg cards r10
4.16

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bologna — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Fouls for r5↑
14.60
Rest days↓
22
xG for (last 5)
1.31
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.05
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
6.00
Referee avg cards r10
4.16

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Lecce — Cards over 1.5hit
Why
Rest days↓
20
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
xG for (last 5)
1.17
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.40
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.60
Shots for (last 5)
8.40
xG against (last 5)
2.64
Corners for (last 5)
3.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
7.80
Yellows for r5
2.00
Shots against (last 5)
16.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Federico Bernardeschi to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player key passes (last 5)↑
1.75
Player minutes (last 5)
72.80
Absence rate r10
0.70

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

21.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Roberto Piccoli to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.25
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Absence rate r10↓
0.80
Player minutes (last 5)
71.60
Player key passes (last 5)
1.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

20.3%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Lassana Coulibaly to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player shots (last 5)↑
1.67
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.67
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

15.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Wladimiro Falcone over 3.5 savesmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
16.60
Player saves (last 5)↑
5.40
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

49.4%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
Łukasz Skorupski over 3.5 savesLong shot
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
11.80
Corners against (last 5)↑
6.00
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.20
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

38.4%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'17' Goal (Bologna) — Riccardo Orsolini64' Goal (Lecce) — A. Ahmed Fatah75' Goal (Bologna) — Jay Enem
Lecce 0%
Draw 5%
Bologna 95%

At 90' (1-2): home 0%, draw 5%, away 95%.

Voided predictions (2)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Bologna winPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.