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SERIE_Afinal

Genoa vs Fiorentina

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 1:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Genoa winLong shothit
32.7%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
27.5%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Fiorentina — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.91
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.80
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.60
Fouls for r5
11.00
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.25
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.7%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Genoa — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.99
Shots against (last 5)↓
15.80
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.00
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Genoa — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.99
Shots against (last 5)↓
15.80
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.00
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Fiorentina — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.91
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.80
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.60
Fouls for r5
11.00
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.25
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Fiorentina — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.91
Shots for (last 5)↑
16.80
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.60
Fouls for r5
11.00
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.25
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Genoa — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.99
Shots against (last 5)↓
15.80
Rest days
20
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.00
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Fiorentina — Shots on Target over 2.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.91
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.60
Rest days
20
Fouls for r5
11.00
Shots for (last 5)
16.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.25
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

79.3%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Genoa — Shots on Target under 5.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.99
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.00
Rest days
20
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

76.9%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Genoa — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.99
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.00
Rest days
20
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

72.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Fiorentina — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.91
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.60
Rest days
20
Fouls for r5
11.00
Shots for (last 5)
16.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.25
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Genoa — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
0.99
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
3.00
Rest days
20
Reds for r5
1.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Fiorentina — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.91
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.60
Rest days
20
Fouls for r5
11.00
Shots for (last 5)
16.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.25
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Fiorentina — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days↓
20
xG for (last 5)
1.91
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.60
Fouls for r5
11.00
Shots for (last 5)
16.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.25
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Genoa — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Reds for r5↑
1.00
Rest days
20
xG for (last 5)
0.99
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.8%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Fiorentina — Cards under 2.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days↓
20
xG for (last 5)
1.91
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.60
Fouls for r5
11.00
Shots for (last 5)
16.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
2.25
Shots against (last 5)
11.80
Corners against (last 5)
3.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Genoa — Cards under 2.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Reds for r5↑
1.00
Rest days
20
xG for (last 5)
0.99
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.00
Fouls for r5
10.00
Shots for (last 5)
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.47
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
15.80
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Franco Mastantuono to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.80
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.50
Player minutes (last 5)
75.40
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

30.5%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Arthur Atta to scoreLong shot
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.25
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Absence rate r10↓
1.00
Player minutes (last 5)
67.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.25

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

20.4%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Justin Bijlow over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.80
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.80
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player saves (last 5)
3.25

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

43.6%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
David De Gea over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
11.80
Corners against (last 5)↑
3.80
Player saves (last 5)↑
3.00
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

38.6%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'7' Goal (Genoa)7' Goal (Genoa) — M. Osmajić15' Goal (Genoa) — Junior Messias
Genoa 93%
Draw 7%
Fiorentina 0%

At 90' (2-1): home 93%, draw 7%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (3)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 43 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 43 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Fiorentina winPermalink

    Slated 43 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.