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SERIE_Afinal

Cagliari vs Juventus

Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 6:45 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Juventus winmiss
57.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shothit
24.7%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink
Cagliari winLong shotmiss
18.4%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Cagliari — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.21
Shots against (last 5)↓
20.40
Rest days
22
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.95
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
1.25
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

78.6%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Juventus — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
xG against (last 5)↑
0.53
Corners for (last 5)↑
8.60
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.72
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.80
Fouls for r5
14.80
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
7.80
Corners against (last 5)
2.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

76.6%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Cagliari — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.21
Shots against (last 5)↓
20.40
Rest days
22
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.95
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
1.25
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Juventus — Corners over 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG against (last 5)↑
0.53
Corners for (last 5)↑
8.60
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.72
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.80
Fouls for r5
14.80
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
7.80
Corners against (last 5)
2.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Juventus — Corners under 6.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG against (last 5)↑
0.53
Corners for (last 5)↑
8.60
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.72
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.80
Fouls for r5
14.80
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
7.80
Corners against (last 5)
2.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Cagliari — Corners over 3.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.21
Shots against (last 5)↓
20.40
Rest days
22
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.95
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
1.25
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Cagliari — Shots on Target over 2.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.21
xG against (last 5)↓
1.95
Rest days
22
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
20.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

75.9%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Cagliari — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.21
xG against (last 5)↓
1.95
Rest days
22
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
20.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Juventus — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.60
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.80
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.72
Fouls for r5
14.80
xG against (last 5)
0.53
Corners for (last 5)
8.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
7.80
Corners against (last 5)
2.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Juventus — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
17.60
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.80
Rest days
21
xG for (last 5)
1.72
Fouls for r5
14.80
xG against (last 5)
0.53
Corners for (last 5)
8.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
7.80
Corners against (last 5)
2.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Cagliari — Shots on Target under 4.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.21
xG against (last 5)↓
1.95
Rest days
22
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
20.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.2%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Cagliari — Shots on Target over 3.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↓
1.21
xG against (last 5)↓
1.95
Rest days
22
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Yellows for r5
1.25
Shots against (last 5)
20.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

58.2%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Cagliari — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Yellows for r5↓
1.25
Rest days↓
22
xG for (last 5)
1.21
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
10.20
Shots for (last 5)
10.80
xG against (last 5)
1.95
Corners for (last 5)
4.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.20
Shots against (last 5)
20.40
Corners against (last 5)
6.60
Referee avg cards r10
4.16

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Juventus — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Rest days↓
21
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
xG for (last 5)
1.72
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.80
Fouls for r5
14.80
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
xG against (last 5)
0.53
Corners for (last 5)
8.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
7.80
Corners against (last 5)
2.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Juventus — Cards over 1.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Rest days↓
21
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
xG for (last 5)
1.72
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.80
Fouls for r5
14.80
Shots for (last 5)
17.60
xG against (last 5)
0.53
Corners for (last 5)
8.60
Shots on target against (last 5)
2.80
Yellows for r5
1.60
Shots against (last 5)
7.80
Corners against (last 5)
2.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

62.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Randal Kolo Muani to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.33
Player minutes (last 5)↓
89.80
Player key passes (last 5)
1.00
Absence rate r10
0.60

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

23.4%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Elia Caprile over 3.5 saveshit
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
20.40
Player saves (last 5)↓
3.80
Corners against (last 5)↑
6.60
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

46.2%
roughly 1 in 2
Permalink
Guglielmo Vicario over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
7.80
Player minutes (last 5)↓
89.80
Player saves (last 5)↑
1.80
Corners against (last 5)
2.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

31.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'20' Goal (Cagliari) — D. Maldini81' Goal (Juventus) — R. Kolo Muani
Cagliari 5%
Draw 86%
Juventus 9%

At 90' (1-1): home 5%, draw 86%, away 9%.

Voided predictions (2)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.