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EPLfinal

Sunderland vs Leeds United

Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 4:30 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Sunderland winLong shotmiss
36.2%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Leeds United winLong shotmiss
35.8%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shothit
28.1%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink

Corners

Leeds United — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.79
Shots for (last 5)↓
12.00
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.00
xG against (last 5)
1.71
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
13.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Sunderland — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.40
xG for (last 5)↑
1.75
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.67
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.60
xG against (last 5)
2.54
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Sunderland — Corners over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.40
xG for (last 5)↑
1.75
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.67
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.60
xG against (last 5)
2.54
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Leeds United — Corners under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.79
Shots for (last 5)↓
12.00
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.00
xG against (last 5)
1.71
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
13.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Sunderland — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.40
xG for (last 5)↑
1.75
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.67
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.60
xG against (last 5)
2.54
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.9%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Leeds United — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.79
Shots for (last 5)↓
12.00
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.00
xG against (last 5)
1.71
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
13.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

74.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Leeds United — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.79
Shots for (last 5)↓
12.00
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.00
xG against (last 5)
1.71
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
13.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Sunderland — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.75
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
4.00
Rest days
7
Reds for r5
0.67
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.60
xG against (last 5)
2.54
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Leeds United — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.79
Shots for (last 5)↓
12.00
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.00
xG against (last 5)
1.71
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.40
Shots against (last 5)
13.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Sunderland — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
1.75
Shots on target for (last 5)↓
4.00
Rest days
7
Reds for r5
0.67
Fouls for r5
11.20
Shots for (last 5)
11.60
xG against (last 5)
2.54
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Sunderland — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Fouls for r5↓
11.20
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.75
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.00
Reds for r5
0.67
Shots for (last 5)
11.60
xG against (last 5)
2.54
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Yellows for r5
2.20
Shots against (last 5)
16.20
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

71.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Leeds United — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.40
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.79
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.00
Shots for (last 5)
12.00
xG against (last 5)
1.71
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.4%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Leeds United — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.40
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.79
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
14.00
Shots for (last 5)
12.00
xG against (last 5)
1.71
Corners for (last 5)
4.20
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.60
Shots against (last 5)
13.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.3%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

D. Calvert-Lewin to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.40
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.25
Player minutes (last 5)↓
84.20
Player key passes (last 5)
0.60
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.4%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
E. Le Fée to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.33
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
88.20
Player key passes (last 5)
2.00
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

22.1%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

R. Roefs over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
16.20
Player saves (last 5)↓
2.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

41.6%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
J. Trafford over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Player saves (last 5)↑
3.80
Shots against (last 5)↓
13.00
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.00
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

40.1%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'
Sunderland 7%
Draw 86%
Leeds United 7%

At 90' (0-0): home 7%, draw 86%, away 7%.

Voided predictions (4)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Leeds United — Shots on Target under 3.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Sunderland — Shots on Target over 4.5Permalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.