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EPLfinal

Brentford vs Liverpool

Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 2:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Brentford winLong shotmiss
33.2%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
24.6%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to scoreBold pickhit
65.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink

Total Goals

Over 2.5 goalsBold pickhit
63.6%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Liverpool — Corners under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.80
Shots for (last 5)↓
12.40
Rest days
5
xG for (last 5)
1.42
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
13.80
xG against (last 5)
1.31
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
12.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Brentford — Corners over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.40
xG for (last 5)↑
1.63
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Fouls for r5
15.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
xG against (last 5)
1.68
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
3.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Brentford — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.40
xG for (last 5)↑
1.63
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Fouls for r5
15.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
xG against (last 5)
1.68
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
3.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Liverpool — Corners under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Corners for (last 5)↓
3.80
Shots for (last 5)↓
12.40
Rest days
5
xG for (last 5)
1.42
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
13.80
xG against (last 5)
1.31
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.60
Shots against (last 5)
12.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

61.5%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Brentford — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
xG for (last 5)↑
1.63
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Fouls for r5
15.80
xG against (last 5)
1.68
Corners for (last 5)
3.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
3.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.5%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Liverpool — Shots on Target under 4.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.60
Shots against (last 5)↓
12.00
Rest days
5
xG for (last 5)
1.42
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
13.80
Shots for (last 5)
12.40
xG against (last 5)
1.31
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

68.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Liverpool — Shots on Target over 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
4.60
Shots against (last 5)↓
12.00
Rest days
5
xG for (last 5)
1.42
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
13.80
Shots for (last 5)
12.40
xG against (last 5)
1.31
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Yellows for r5
2.60
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

67.7%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Brentford — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
13.80
xG for (last 5)↑
1.63
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Fouls for r5
15.80
xG against (last 5)
1.68
Corners for (last 5)
3.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Yellows for r5
3.00
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.80

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

64.1%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Liverpool — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.60
Rest days
5
xG for (last 5)
1.42
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
13.80
Shots for (last 5)
12.40
xG against (last 5)
1.31
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Shots against (last 5)
12.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

70.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Brentford — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Fouls for r5↑
15.80
Yellows for r5↑
3.00
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.63
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
xG against (last 5)
1.68
Corners for (last 5)
3.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.80
Referee avg cards r10
4.16

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

66.9%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Liverpool — Cards under 2.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Yellows for r5↑
2.60
Rest days
5
xG for (last 5)
1.42
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.60
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
13.80
Shots for (last 5)
12.40
xG against (last 5)
1.31
Corners for (last 5)
3.80
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.60
Shots against (last 5)
12.00
Corners against (last 5)
5.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Brentford — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Fouls for r5↑
15.80
Yellows for r5↑
3.00
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.63
Shots on target for (last 5)
3.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.80
xG against (last 5)
1.68
Corners for (last 5)
3.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
5.20
Shots against (last 5)
15.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.80
Referee avg cards r10
4.16

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

A. Isak to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.60
Player key passes (last 5)↓
0.60
Player minutes (last 5)
83.00
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

37.0%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Kevin Schade to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.60
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.25
Player minutes (last 5)↑
82.00
Player key passes (last 5)
0.40
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

35.8%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
C. Gakpo to scoreLong shot
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.50
Player key passes (last 5)↑
2.20
Player minutes (last 5)
74.20
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.8%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Igor Thiago to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.20
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Player key passes (last 5)
1.25
Absence rate r10
0.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

19.8%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Caoimhin Kelleher over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↑
15.60
Corners against (last 5)↓
4.80
Player saves (last 5)↑
3.60
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

43.6%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Alisson over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Shots against (last 5)↓
12.00
Player saves (last 5)↑
2.40
Corners against (last 5)↓
5.20
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

38.2%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'44' Goal (Brentford) — K. Lewis-Potter45+8' Red card (Brentford) — Yehor Yarmoliuk62' Goal (Liverpool) — Víctor Muñoz70' Goal (Liverpool) — Alexander Isak90+2' Red card (Brentford) — V. Janelt
Brentford 0%
Draw 3%
Liverpool 97%

At 90' (1-2): home 0%, draw 3%, away 97%.

Voided predictions (1)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Liverpool winPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.