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EPLfinal

Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 1:00 PM (your local time)

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Match Result

Draw (90 min)Long shotmiss
26.0%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Sunderland winLong shotmiss
24.1%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Corners

Sunderland — Corners under 6.5hit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.17
Shots against (last 5)↓
12.60
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
11.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.77
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

80.0%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Bournemouth — Corners over 3.5hit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.40
Corners against (last 5)↑
3.20
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.68
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.80
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

78.4%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Sunderland — Corners under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.17
Shots against (last 5)↓
12.60
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
11.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.77
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

69.2%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bournemouth — Corners over 4.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.40
Corners against (last 5)↑
3.20
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.68
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.80
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

65.3%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bournemouth — Corners under 6.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots for (last 5)↑
14.40
Corners against (last 5)↑
3.20
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.68
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.80
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Sunderland — Corners over 3.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.17
Shots against (last 5)↓
12.60
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
11.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.77
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.40
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

59.8%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Shots on Target

Sunderland — Shots on Target over 2.5miss
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.17
Shots for (last 5)↓
13.40
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.77
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
12.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

77.0%
roughly 4 in 5
Permalink
Bournemouth — Shots on Target over 3.5Bold pickhit
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.20
xG against (last 5)↑
1.30
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.68
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.6%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Sunderland — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickhit
Why
xG for (last 5)↑
2.17
Shots for (last 5)↓
13.40
Rest days
7
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
11.80
xG against (last 5)
1.77
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Yellows for r5
1.40
Shots against (last 5)
12.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

73.0%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Bournemouth — Shots on Target under 5.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Shots on target for (last 5)↑
5.20
xG against (last 5)↑
1.30
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.68
Reds for r5
0.00
Fouls for r5
12.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.40
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

60.4%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Cards

Card predictions use the league-average referee. A match's referee is rarely assigned when these predictions are made, about three days before kickoff, so the specific referee's tendencies are not part of the model.

Bournemouth — Cards under 2.5Bold pickmiss
Why
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Reds for r5↓
0.00
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
1.68
Shots on target for (last 5)
5.20
Fouls for r5
12.80
Shots for (last 5)
14.40
xG against (last 5)
1.30
Corners for (last 5)
5.00
Shots on target against (last 5)
4.00
Yellows for r5
3.20
Shots against (last 5)
10.20
Corners against (last 5)
3.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

71.1%
roughly 7 in 10
Permalink
Sunderland — Cards over 1.5Bold pickhit
Why
Yellows for r5↓
1.40
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
2.17
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
11.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.77
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Shots against (last 5)
12.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.7%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink
Sunderland — Cards under 2.5Bold pickhit
Why
Yellows for r5↓
1.40
Referee avg cards r10↑
4.16
Rest days
7
xG for (last 5)
2.17
Shots on target for (last 5)
4.80
Reds for r5
0.20
Fouls for r5
11.80
Shots for (last 5)
13.40
xG against (last 5)
1.77
Corners for (last 5)
4.40
Shots on target against (last 5)
3.40
Shots against (last 5)
12.60
Corners against (last 5)
4.40

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

63.0%
roughly 3 in 5
Permalink

Anytime Goalscorer

Marcus Tavernier to scoreLong shothit
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.30
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.50
Player key passes (last 5)↑
1.80
Player minutes (last 5)
81.80
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.9%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Enzo Le Fée to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player shots (last 5)↑
3.33
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
88.00
Player key passes (last 5)
2.20
Absence rate r10
0.50

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

25.0%
roughly 3 in 10
Permalink
Justin Kluivert to scoreLong shotmiss
Why
Player goals (last 10)↑
0.20
Player shots (last 5)↑
2.00
Player key passes (last 5)↓
0.60
Player minutes (last 5)
74.20
Absence rate r10
0.70

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

17.3%
roughly 1 in 5
Permalink

Goalkeeper Saves

Robin Roefs over 3.5 savesLong shothit
Why
Player saves (last 5)↓
1.75
Shots against (last 5)↑
12.60
Corners against (last 5)↑
4.40
Player minutes (last 5)
90.00

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

39.3%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink
Đorđe Petrović over 3.5 savesLong shotmiss
Why
Player saves (last 5)↓
1.60
Corners against (last 5)↑
3.20
Player minutes (last 5)↓
90.00
Shots against (last 5)
10.20

Arrows show which of these mattered most to the model for this specific prediction, and in which direction.

38.8%
roughly 2 in 5
Permalink

In-play win probability

Recomputed about once a minute from the live score. Separate from the locked pre-match predictions above, and never graded.

0%50%100%0'45'90'5' Goal (Bournemouth)6' Goal (Bournemouth) — M. Tavernier17' Red card (Sunderland) — Kevin Danso48' Goal (Bournemouth) — Evanilson
Bournemouth 100%
Draw 0%
Sunderland 0%

At 90' (2-0): home 100%, draw 0%, away 0%.

Voided predictions (3)

Kept public, never deleted. Each one says why it was voided.

  • Both teams to scorePermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Bournemouth winPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.

  • Over 2.5 goalsPermalink

    Slated 44 days before kickoff, outside the 3-day slate window (ADR-012); superseded by a fresh slate.